Last Updated on September 7, 2025 9:57 pm by Anthony Rome
In this Vikings vs Bears prediction, Week 1’s Monday night spotlight falls on two ascending franchises with young QBs: Minnesota turns to J.J. McCarthy to run a creative, play-action-heavy offense, while Chicago will lean on Caleb Williams’ arm and improvisational ability in Ben Johnson’s scheme. This divisional opener is as much about limiting turnovers and winning third downs as it is about big plays.
Vikings vs Bears Event Information
- Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Soldier Field — Chicago, IL
- TV: FOX
Vikings vs Bears Betting Odds
Odds via Bovada:
- Spread: Vikings -1 / Bears +1
- Moneyline: Vikings -115 / Bears -105
- Total (O/U): 44
Public Betting Splits
According to the NFL Public Betting Chart, early action has been tilted toward Minnesota on both the spread and moneyline, with most of the public fading Chicago at home. The total is seeing more balanced action, leaning slightly toward the Over.
Matchup Breakdown
How Minnesota attacks Chicago
Minnesota’s offense is built around play-action balance and getting the ball to Justin Jefferson in space. J.J. McCarthy’s accuracy on medium-depth throws and his ability to manage the pocket will determine whether the Vikings can sustain long drives and avoid quick three-and-outs. The Vikings will try to control tempo with a run/PA mix and use Jefferson to break coverage windows.
How Chicago counters Minnesota
Chicago’s offense flows through Caleb Williams, who can create after the catch and flip the field with explosive throws. The Bears will look to get Williams in rhythm early—quick game, run-pass balance, and using DJ Moore on intermediate digs to move the chains. Protecting Williams from pressure and getting playmakers matched up in one-on-ones will be Chicago’s path to success.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Justin Jefferson vs. Bears’ top corner(s) — if he wins his routes, Minnesota controls third downs.
- Vikings’ offensive line vs. Chicago pressure packages — early pressure forces shorter possessions and turnovers.
- Caleb Williams’ clean-pocket window vs. Vikings zone blitzes — Williams thrives when he gets time to throw.
- Third-down defense — both teams live and die by third-down conversion rates.
Vikings vs Bears Prediction
This is a classic low-margin divisional game. Minnesota’s safer, more structured offensive plan gives the Vikings a slight advantage in third-down conversion and ball control. Chicago has the higher-ceiling plays because of Williams’ arm, but rookies and young QBs are often mistake-prone early in the season. Lean with the Vikings to cover a short road number; play the total based on the market (I prefer fading an inflated number if it moves up because both teams emphasize ball control).
Best Bets:
- Lean: Vikings (take the short road number if it’s +1 to -3)
- Lean: Over/Under — shop live; if the total creeps up above normal, I’d consider fading the Over.
- Player prop leans: Jefferson receptions (Over), Williams passing yards (Over).
Projected Score: Vikings 27, Bears 20