Last Updated on February 11, 2026 7:41 am by admin
The 2025 NFL season will go down in history as one of the most chaotic of all time. The dynasty status of the Kansas City Chiefs was unceremoniously ripped from Patrick Mahomes and Co. with a disastrous 6-11 playoff miss. None of the big boys fared much better, with only the Buffalo Bills of the AFC’s recent heavyweights even reaching the postseason, and they were dumped out after an error-laden display from talismanic quarterback Josh Allen in the Divisional Round in Denver.
Let’s face it, who pegged the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots as the Super Bowl LX participants at the start of the season? The former was a +6000 outsider in preseason, while the Pats were priced even longer, with some outlets listing them as long as +8000.
Fast forward to the Big Game actually getting underway, and as one would expect, those prices had shrunk drastically. The Bovada Super Bowl odds made Seattle the -235 favourites and the Patriots the narrow +195 underdogs. But even before the Lombardi was raised at Levi’s Stadium, the bookies had already priced up their favorites for next season’s Super Bowl champion.
The Seahawks find themselves at the top of that odds list as well, installed as the +750 frontrunner, just ahead of their NFC West rival LA Rams, at +800. But which teams look to be priced longer than they should be and thus, offer value to punters, in the early betting market? Let’s take a look.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes sat in a Kansas City medical facility in mid-December after that disastrous season-ending home defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers, watching an MRI confirm what he already knew—torn ACL, left knee in tatters, Chiefs Kingdom toppled once and for all. The Chiefs were 6-8 after that loss, mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, and Gardner Minshew was about to throw a game-sealing interception to confirm the misery. First losing season since 2013. First playoff miss in a decade. The first time Andy Reid’s dynasty looked mortal.
But despite the disastrous 2025 season, are the Chiefs really +1600 outsiders to return to the summit next term? Are the Chargers (+1500) and the Packers (+1400) more likely to win the Lombardi on Valentine’s Day 2027—the latest Super Bowl date ever? We’re not convinced.
Mahomes tore his ACL scrambling on a desperation play in Week 15 after the offensive line—already down two starters—completely collapsed. The defense regressed because Steve Spagnuolo lost three Pro Bowl contributors to free agency last offseason. Travis Kelce’s aging out, sure, but he’s still productive when healthy. But what punters should really be looking at is that KC has actual cap space for the first time since 2020, nearly $44 million in breathing room once they restructure Mahomes’ deal.
The offseason priorities are straightforward: left tackle to replace an aging Jawaan Taylor, edge rusher to replace Chris Jones’ declining production, and a legitimate WR1 because Hollywood Brown isn’t it. They’re targeting receiver Alvin Pierce Jr. at $80 million, while superstar running back Jeremiah Love is expected to be selected with the ninth overall pick of the upcoming draft.
Mahomes’ nine-month ACL recovery puts him back to full fitness by training camp, meaning he should be fit and firing by the time the 2026 season kicks off. And Patrick Mahomes, with a point to prove, is a dangerous proposition. Bet against him at your peril.
San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks demolished San Francisco 41-6 in the NFC Divisional Round, ending a season that somehow felt both promising and devastating. The 49ers finished 11-6, earned a wild-card berth, and beat Philadelphia before Seattle exposed every flaw at the cauldron-like Lumen Field. But all of that came at the end of an injury-tiddled season in which the Niners performed far better than they had any right to.
Brock Purdy missed Week 1 with turf toe after signing the largest contract of his career, then spent the season navigating constant roster chaos. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa each played only nine regular-season games. George Kittle missed six games, then tore his Achilles in the Wild Card win over Philly. Trent Williams dealt with availability issues. Jauan Jennings missed time. The offensive line shuffled weekly. Somehow Purdy—and an eight-game cameo from Mac Jones—still dragged this battered roster to 11-6.
Brandon Aiyuk’s departure is inevitable—he stopped communicating with the team, they’ve voided his guarantees, and a $29.585 million dead cap hit is coming. Jake Brendel, Bryce Huff, and Demarcus Robinson hit free agency. But San Francisco projects $37 million in cap space, 11th most in the league, with restructure potential for more.
Here’s the value proposition: Kyle Shanahan’s offensive genius doesn’t evaporate because of injury-plagued seasons. The defense remains elite when healthy. The market’s pricing the 49ers at +1800 like they’re rebuilding, not reloading. They’ve got cap space, draft capital, and a quarterback who proved he can stabilize an offense through absolute chaos. Does one lopsided playoff loss erase a decade of championship infrastructure? The betting market thinks so. We don’t.