This late-November AFC South clash blends divisional urgency with storylines that matter to bettors: quarterback health, a home team defending a perfect mark at Lucas Oil, and a line that’s moved as sharp action and public money collide. If you care about edges, props and the game-deciding matchups that swing spreads, keep reading — this Texans vs. Colts Picks breakdown walks through the weather, injuries and of course, a prediction.
Texans vs. Colts Game Day Information
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Matchup: Houston Texans (6–5) at Indianapolis Colts (8–3)
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Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
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Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
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Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
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TV: CBS
Opening line: Texans -1.5/Colts +1.5
Injury report — who’s out, who matters and impact
Texans: According to the Texans final report, CB Ajani Carter and LB Jamal Hill are listed OUT (both hamstring). While both are rotational/reserve pieces rather than top-12 starters, their absences thin Houston’s depth and force additional snaps from younger backups in the nickel and special-teams units. That matters in a close divisional game where late-game tackling and situational defensive snaps can swing short-yardage conversions and field-position battles.
Crucially for Houston, recent coverage notes that C.J. Stroud has cleared concussion protocol and is slated to start — a major boost to Houston’s offensive ceiling after the team rallied during his absence. Stroud’s availability raises the Texans’ upside but also means the Colts will have their hands full with a more explosive passer than the backup.
Colts: Indianapolis’ most notable ruling out is LB Jaylon Carlies (ankle). Beyond that, Colts’ injury listings look manageable, and the team projects largely healthy for a home date. The relative health of Indianapolis’ core — particularly along the offensive line and at QB — makes it easier for the Colts to execute their game plan and maintain two-way consistency over four quarters.
Impact summary: The Texans losing rotational defensive pieces slightly dims their depth, but the real game-changer was Stroud’s status — his return raises Houston’s ceiling. Still, the Colts enter the game healthier at the key positions and retain home-field continuity, which is meaningful against a Texans team that’s had lineup swings midseason.
Public Betting Tickets
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Texans vs. Colts Picks & Predictions
Pick: Colts -3.5
1) Home-field stability and matchup environment (indoor, familiar conditions).
Indianapolis has been a strong home unit this season and the Colts’ personnel and schemes are built to exploit mismatches at Lucas Oil. Playing in a controlled indoor environment removes weather variance and gives the Colts the edge in executing a timing-based offense and predictable special teams — critical when the spread hovers in the single-digits. Home teams that are favorites in a dome typically have smaller variance, which benefits bettors taking a favored side when the number is modest.
2) Better health and continuity at key spots.
The Colts’ injury list shows fewer disruptive absences than Houston’s, and Indianapolis projects with its usual starters available. That continuity matters late in close games — substitutions and snap-count redistribution can create matchup advantages late in games when fatigue and situational football tilt outcomes. Houston’s ruled-out reserves weaken depth; even with Stroud back, the Texans will be putting some pressure on backups and young players in high-leverage snaps. The net effect: a small, but meaningful, edge to Indianapolis in the fourth quarter.
3) Game script favors the Colts finishing strong.
If the Colts control the line of scrimmage and win the turnover battle — both reasonable expectations with their healthier roster and home-field advantages — the Texans are more likely to trail late and be forced into higher-variance passing situations. Those situations create negative expected-value plays for Houston and increase the probability of the Colts covering a field-goal margin. Given how close the teams are in talent, these small edges stack in Indianapolis’ favor across four quarters.
Final score projection: Colts 24 — Texans 20
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