Coming off his worst statistical season of his career, will Travis Kelce go off now that it’s the playoffs? Will Xavier Worthy continue to play a big role in the Chiefs’ offensive game plan? Read on for our Texans vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay prediction.
Vikings vs. Rams SGP Recap
The last Same Game Parlay I put together was for the Rams-Vikings Wildcard matchup on Monday. After faring well with my prop selections over the weekend, that game did not go well. I had Matthew Stafford over 242.5 passing yards, Aaron Jones under 59.5 rushing yards and Puka Nacua over 7.5 receptions. The thing that killed both the Stafford and Nacua plays was the fact that the Rams jumped out to a big lead at halftime. They didn’t need to throw the ball much in the second half. Even though Jones rushed for under his total, the Stafford and Nacua legs did not hit.
Texans vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay: Travis Kelce over 5.5 Receptions
The 823 yards that Kelce posted during the NFL’s regular season was the fewest of his career. After averaging 65.6 yards per game in 2023, he averaged just 51.4 yards per game this past season. At 35, he clearly isn’t the same player he once was and has already entered the twilight of his career.
That said, it’s the playoffs. We now get playoff Travis Kelce, which is a different beast. Last postseason, Kelce caught seven passes for 71 yards against the Dolphins in the Wildcard round. He brought in five passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills in the Divisional round. Against the Ravens in the AFC Championship, he went off, catching 11 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. In the Super Bowl, he caught nine passes against the 49ers for 93 yards.
The Texans have been stout against tight ends this season, but this is playoff Travis Kelce.
Texans vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay: Xavier Worthy over 60.5 Rush + Rec. Yards
The Chiefs are developing a reputation of slow-playing things with their rookies. Last season, rookie wideout Rashee Rice was brought along slowly during the regular season. By the time the confetti fell at the Super Bowl, Rice had emerged as the Chiefs No. 1 receiver.
While I don’t believe Worthy is on the same trajectory in terms of being Kansas City’s No. 1 receiver, it’s clear the Chiefs are ramping up his opportunities. Honestly, they’ve been doing that for over a month now. Over the final seven games of the season, Worthy led the team in receptions (39), receiving yards (392) and touchdowns (3). He had 55 targets over that span, which were just two fewer than Kelce.
When these two teams met in Week 16, Worthy caught seven –of-11 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. He also rushed three times for 10 yards. He will be a factor in today’s game plan for Andy Reid.
Texans vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay: John Metchie III over 3.5 Receptions
The Chiefs have done an excellent job this season limiting opponents’ No. 1 receiver. For the Texans, that’s Nico Collins. I don’t believe Houston will be able to run the ball effectively today and if Kansas City limits Collins, then the targets and opportunities have to go someone.
Metchie to me, is that someone. He did not play in the first meeting between these two teams, but he did play 50% of his snaps from the slot last week against the Chargers. The reason that’s important is because 53.4% of the receptions allowed by Kansas City to opposing receivers came from the slot (Warren Sharp Football). That’s the highest rate in the league.
3-Leg Same Game Parlay Odds: +606 (Fanduel Sportsbook)