Last Updated on February 2, 2026 8:35 am by admin
Everyone’s going to have a theory for Super Bowl 60, a game where the market consensus has swung in favor of the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are -200 on the moneyline, with the Patriots at +190. The spread is set at -4.5 in the Seahawks’ favor.
We know all the above, of course, as it will be the most talked-about betting market in the world over the coming days. But we wanted to look at the MVP markets, which throw up quite an interesting conundrum.
Maye and the Patriots’ chances feel intertwined
According to DraftKings’ Super Bowl game lines, Sam Darnold is +130 to be the game’s MVP, with Drake Maye at +235. What should jump out at you right away is that the odds for Maye are almost identical to the odds for a Patriots win. If you want to think in implied probability, it’s 33.1% for a Pats win and 29.9%. The Seahawks are at 66.9% and Darnold at 43.5%.
Thus, you have a situation saying (broadly) the market thinks that the Patriots winning the Super Bowl is almost synonymous with Drake Maye leading the charge as MVP. We know there is a possibility that it won’t happen, but we are speaking in generalities. And with Darnold and the Seahawks, there is a little more room for maneuver.
That certainly comes to light when you look at the rest of the market. The Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III are priced at +550 and +600, respectively. Everyone else in the market is +2500 and above. Therefore, the market is saying that the Seahawks have other MVP routes, whereas the Patriots are all about Maye.
Trending toward quarterbacks
The Trend is your friend in sports betting, but it can also be misleading. The winning quarterback has received the MVP 34 times in Super Bowl history, so 56.67% of the time. Yet, the trend in the modern era of the NFL has been closer to 70%. In recent history, it has been even stronger (five of the last six).
There are certain similarities to last year’s Super Bowl, where Patrick Mahomes’ odds were tighter to the Chiefs’ odds compared to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. That was down to Saquon Barkley, with many believing he, not Hurts, would be key to an Eagles’ victory. As it turned out, though, the winning QB was again crowned.
The market doesn’t seem easy to navigate
Getting back to 2026, it doesn’t feel like this is a market that jumps out with a clear value prospect. You can appreciate that some might look at Seattle as the better all-rounder team, looking at something like Walker III as a potential pick, but it’s worth remembering that a running back hasn’t won the MVP this century. Cooper Kupp was the last wide receiver to win (2022), and Julian Edelman won from that position in 2019, so you may see some bettors veer toward Smith-Njigba.
All of this will depend on how you view the overall market. There would be no point in backing Maye, for instance, if you weren’t convinced of a Patriots win. It feels like you have more options if you like the Seahawks, but that also means there are more variables.