Will Lamar Jackson go higher than his rushing total on Sunday night? Will Josh Allen reach the end zone? Read on for our Ravens vs. Bills Underdog Fantasy Picks.
NFL Divisional Round Underdog Fantasy Recap
My Texans-Chiefs Underdog Fantasy picks went bust when C.J. Stroud of the Texans finished lower than 34.5 passing attempts. While Travis Kelce went higher than 5.5 receptions, Xavier Worthy went lower than 4.5 receptions. Thus, it wasn’t a great start to my Underdog selections in the Divisional round.
In the Commanders-Lions game, I had Jared Goff higher than 274.5 passing yards and he finished with 313. Jahmyr Gibbs also scored a touchdown, but Jayden Daniels only had 51 rushing yards. Thus, he went lower than the 55.5 rush yards we needed to cash on this game.
Ravens vs. Bills Underdog Fantasy Picks: Lamar Jackson 56.5 Rushing Yards (Higher)
There are a couple of reasons to fade the Ravens’ passing game and lean into their rushing attack (one that features not only Derrick Henry, but also Lamar on designed runs). For starters, Zay Flowers is unlikely to play due to a knee injury that kept him out of last week’s Wildcard win over the Steelers. Flowers is the Ravens’ best and most explosive weapon in the passing game. Without his top receiver last week, Jackson was held to 175 yards on 16-of-21 passing.
Secondly, Jackson has faced a Sean McDermott-led defense four times in his career. He has never thrown for more than 162 yards in any of those games. That’s not to say he hasn’t been effective or efficient when facing McDermott’s defense, he just doesn’t have big passing games.
Finally, Lamar has a propensity to run more during the playoffs. He rushed 15 times last week for 81 yards in Baltimore’s win over Pittsburgh. The only time he’s rushed for 15 or more times this season was all the way back in Week 1. In six out of his seven postseason appearances, he’s rushed for at least 54 yards.
Ravens vs. Bills Underdog Fantasy Picks: Josh Allen 0.5 Rush + Rec. TDs (Higher)
Allen has rushed 7.9 times for 45.8 yards per game over his past eight contests. During that span, he also has nine rushing touchdowns. Not that he hasn’t in previous seasons, but Allen has played with urgency this season. He knows the Bills’ window to win a championship is wide open, even after the team moved on from No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason. He and the Bills proved that they’re more balanced now offensively, but they have a difficult task this evening against a stout Baltimore team.
James Cook has 19 touchdowns this season, so it’s feasible that when the Bills get near the goal line, they’ll hand the ball off to their No. 1 back. Then again, knowing what a weapon Allen is with both his arm and his legs, getting their quarterback on the move inside the red zone makes a lot of sense, too. I’ll forego the Cook touchdown for any Allen score today.
Ravens vs. Bills Underdog Fantasy Picks: Mark Andrews 42.5 Receiving Yards (Lower)
Andrews wasn’t needed much in the Ravens’ win over the Steelers, but I also don’t see a bounce back game tonight against the Bills. He caught two-of-three targets for only 27 yards against Pittsburgh, which was just the third time since Week 6 that Andrews did not catch a touchdown pass.
Buffalo has been tough on opposing tight ends this season. The Bills have allowed 6.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends, which ranks fifth in the NFL. I also think that without Flowers, the Ravens will utilize more two tight end sets and keep Isiah Likely involved. As previously noted, I don’t love the Ravens’ passing game today and will be fading players like Andrews.