10 Super Bowl LVI Prop Predictions
If you’re betting the action on Super Bowl Sunday and are looking for some quality prop plays, here are 10 that you should consider for your card when the Bengals and Rams clash this evening at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Game Snapshot
101 Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. 102 Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5); o/u 48.5
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 13, 2022
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
TV: NBC
Super Bowl LVI Prop #1: Cooper Kupp over 105.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
In his 20 games this season including playoffs, Kupp went over 105.5 receiving yards 13 times, cashing at a 65% rate. If you isolate only his postseason performance, Kupp went over that number in two of the Rams’ three playoff games, with the lone exception being their 34-11 win over the Cardinals on Super Wildcard Weekend. In that game, Kupp finished with only 61 yards receiving, but the Rams also didn’t need to put the ball in the air much in the second half because they were dominating Arizona.
Super Bowl LVI Prop #2: Tyler Boyd under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Boyd hasn’t gone over 42.5 receiving yards in four straight games dating back to the end of the regular season. Go back 10 games and he’s gone over his receiving yards total five times and averaged 48.10 yards during that span, but he just hasn’t been racking up the yards recently. In fact, he hasn’t even come close. Boyd finished with 19 yards receiving against the Chiefs in the AFC title game, 17 yards receiving against the Titans in the Divisional round and 26 yards receiving against the Raiders in Wildcard Weekend.
Super Bowl LVI Prop #3: Joe Burrow over 276.5 yards passing (-110)
Over his last five games, Burrow has cashed the over for his passing yards prop three times. Not only is that a profitable 60%, but he averaged 362 yards passing over that stretch, so he has blown away the number that oddsmakers are currently giving him for his passing yards prop tonight. The one problem? He finished with only 250 yards passing against the Chiefs two weeks ago in the AFC title game and only 244 yards against the Raiders Wildcard Weekend. Thus, he fell under that 276.5-yard number in two of his three playoff games. Still, he’s averaging over 280 yards passing in his last 19 games, so the number is right to take the over tonight.
Super Bowl LVI Prop #4: Joe Burrow over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-158)
Another Burrow prop for you to consider. In his 19 games this season, Burrow averaged 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. He went over his passing touchdowns prop number in 13 of those 19 games, cashing at a 68.42% clip. In his last five games, Burrow threw two or more touchdowns four times, including in those postseason wins against the Chiefs and Raiders. The lone exception was when he was held to zero passing touchdowns against the Titans, who sacked him nine times.
Super Bowl LVI Prop #5: Joe Mixon over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This prop somewhat correlates with Prop #3. In his last five games, Mixon has gone over his receiving yards total five straight times. Over that span, he averaged 43.20 receiving yards, far surpassing the 24.5-yard total that he has for Super Bowl Sunday. While he narrowly went over that number against the Chiefs (27 yards) and Raiders (28 yards) this postseason, Mixon racked up 51 receiving yards against the Titans in the Divisional round, 40 yards against the Chiefs on January 2 in a regular season game, as well as 70 receiving yards against the Ravens on December 26.
Super Bowl LVI Prop #6: Matthew Stafford under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
I know Stafford has surpassed 36.5 pass attempts in each of his last two games (he had 45 attempts against the 49ers in the NFC title game and 38 attempts against the Bucs in the Divisional round), but this number is too high. He averaged 35.05 attempts throughout the regular season, so right off the bat we’re getting a good number on the under. He also failed to get over 36.5 pass attempts in his previous three games before attempting 38 passes against the Bucs and had the Rams managed to put that game away earlier, he wouldn’t have hit that number. McVay has stuck with his running game over the past two months and I believe he’ll do so again tonight, leaving Stafford just shy of his passing attempt total.
Super Bowl LVI Prop #7: Cam Akers under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Even though I just wrote that McVay wants to stick with the ground game tonight, doesn’t mean I believe this number is set right for Akers. He hasn’t gone over 63.5 rushing yards in four straight games, averaging just 38.50 rushing yards over that span. He finished with exactly 48 rushing yards against the 49ers and Bucs, respectively, and 55 yards against the Cardinals when the Rams ran the ball almost the entire second half.
Super Bowl LVI Prop #8: Odell Beckham Jr. under 63.5 Receiving Yards
Going back to Prop #1, if I like Kupp to go over his receiving yards number but for Stafford to fall under his attempt total, then someone else in this Rams’ passing game will need to come up short. I believe that’s Beckham, who went off for 113 yards against the 49ers two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game. I love fading that performance, as Beckham has fallen under 63.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games. While he did gone over that number in the Divisional round versus the Bucs, he finished with 69 yards so it’s not as if he blew that number out of the water. Is Beckham trending over? Sure, but I’d rather play the odds here and fade the public’s thinking that he’s about to go off. I’d rather put my money on Kupp, who has done it all season for Stafford and the Rams.
Super Bowl LVI Prop #9: Van Jefferson under 2.5 Receptions (-106)
Jefferson will probably catch two passes and we’ll be sweating out the third in hopes of cashing the under, but I still like this play nonetheless. He caught exactly two passes against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, exactly two passes against the Bucs in the Divisional round and exactly two passes against San Francisco in Week 18 of the regular season. Against the Arizona Wildcard Weekend? One catch. You’d have to go back to Week 17 of the regular season for the last time Jefferson caught more than two passes, as he finished with four receptions against the Ravens in a 20-19 victory. Tight end Tyler Higbee’s injury could force Stafford to look Jefferson’s way more, although that wasn’t the case in two December games when Jefferson finished with only two receptions against the Seahawks (December 21) and two receptions versus the Cardinals (December 13). It’s sound logic, but the numbers don’t bare it out.
Super Bowl LVI #10: First Scoring Play to be Bengals Field Goal (+350)
One long shot for fun. Everyone knows about Cincinnati kicker Evan McPherson, who has become a small sensation during the playoffs because of his swagger and his ability to drill 50-plus yarders as if he’s in practice. Why not take a flier on the first score of the game being a McPherson field goal?