Patriots vs Bills best bets for Sunday Night Football: verified odds with our side, total, and a conservative same game parlay, plus buy/sell thresholds.
The Patriots vs Bills odds sit with Buffalo favored in the one-score to 8.5 range and a total near 49.5 for Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). New England’s path is schedule control and turnovers; Buffalo’s edge is red-zone efficiency and explosives. Scan our NFL odds board for live movement and the public betting chart for consensus splits.
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Game info & TV
- Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
- Network: NBC
Consensus odds snapshot (opening → current)
- Spread: Bills −8.5 (open) → −8.5 (range −7.5 to −8.5)
- Total: 49.0 (open) → 49.5
- Moneyline (approx): Patriots ~+330 / Bills ~−425
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Quick injury & matchup notes
- Patriots: Health trending better in the front seven; WR room light on explosives. Run rate and screens are key to staying on schedule.
- Bills: Josh Allen’s supporting cast intact; TE/RB usage stable. Run defense has been leaky at times, which can shorten the game.
- Edge: Buffalo’s red-zone conversion and explosive pass rate vs. a conservative NE offense.
Best Bets & Expert Picks
- Side — Bills −7.5/−8 (buy ≤ −8; reduce past −8.5): The QB ceiling + red-zone edge at home is worth a one-score tax. If you only see −8.5, consider 1H −4 instead.
- Total — Under 49.5 (buy ≤ 49.5; add at 50/50.5; pass < 49): NE’s best script is ball control; if sustained, possessions shrink and live totals drift down.
Same Game Parlay (conservative build)
- Bills moneyline
- Under 53.5 (alt total)
- James Cook 50+ rushing yards (alt)
Why this build? We anchor with the Bills ML, buy cushion on the total, and lean into Cook’s rushing usage against a defense that concedes efficient ground gains. If you prefer a pass-centric script, swap Cook yards for Dalton Kincaid 4+ receptions.
Market read — how to time entries
- Side: If public pressure pushes to −8.5/−9 late, look for brief buy-back windows toward −8. If −7 appears anywhere, upgrade stake immediately.
- Total: 49.5 is the pivot; add only at 50/50.5. Any early NE success on the ground opens live Under entries.
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