Patriots vs. Dolphins Total Prediction
Following their ugly performance in Week 1, things won’t get any easier for the Dolphins this Sunday when they host the Patriots at 1:00 p.m. ET. Will the Patriots virtually cover the total by themselves this weekend?
269 New England Patriots (-19) at 270 Miami Dolphins (+19); O/U 47.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 15, 2019
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 63% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports there is a “real chance” Antonio Brown (legal) plays Week 2 unless the NFL steps in. Brown practiced on Wednesday, and the Patriots don’t appear like they’ll be sitting him if he’s eligible to play. The NFL could put Brown on the Commissioner’s Exempt List before Week 2, but a move like that has historically been reserved for criminal cases, not civil lawsuits like the one Brown is currently facing for alleged rape and sexual assault. Rapoport also mentions the NFL and the Patriots were unaware of the allegations until the lawsuit was made public.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Spin
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports Dolphins CB Xavien Howard is not seeking a trade. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk on NBC Sports reported Sunday night that many Dolphins, disillusioned by the team’s direction and obvious tanking efforts, have begun seeking trades, though apparently Howard wasn’t one of them. Per Jackson, the Dolphins “value” Howard, which was evident when the team made him the league’s highest-paid corner this offseason. Howard seems committed to the Dolphins’ rebuilding movement and reportedly sees himself as a long-term fixture in Miami. He’ll continue to be a bright spot for one of the most talent-deficient teams in recent memory.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last seven divisional games and is 7-3 in their last 10 conference matchups.
The over is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last five games overall and is 15-7 in their last 22 home games.
I don’t trust the Dolphins to hold Tom Brady and Co. to fewer than 40 points, so if I can get 10 out of Miami’s offense then we’ll be set with the over. Lamar Jackson is a better passer than people give him credit for but the Dolphins turned him into Dan Marino last week in Miami. What is Brady going to do to that team? Granted, Bill Belichick might not want to embarrass one of his former assistants in Dolphins head coach Brian Flores but it’s not worth trying to guess what Belichick will do in a given situation. All I know is that this Miami team is horrendous and New England already looked like it was in midseason form offensively last week.
NFL Week 2 Prediction: Patriots/Dolphins OVER 47.5