Texans vs. Colts Spread Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts beat the Houston Texans a few weeks ago at NRG Stadium but the stakes will be higher Saturday afternoon when the AFC South rivals clash in the first Wild Card game of the weekend. Will the Colts pull off the small upset today?
101 Indianapolis Colts at 102 Houston Texans
4:35 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 5, 2019
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Texans are 1-point favorites to beat the Colts. The total, meanwhile, sits at 48.5 points. As of this writing, 51% of the public betting tickets are on the Colts to cover the point spread.
Colts rookies LG Quenton Nelson and MLB Darius Leonard are the first pair of rookie first-team All-Pro selections since 1965. In 1965, Bears rookies Dick Butkus and Gayle Sayers were selected to the first team. As you know, both went to the Hall of Fame. Nelson and Leonard have a long way to go to achieve that, but GM Chris Ballard knocked his first two 2018 draft picks out of the park. Nelson has manhandled grown men defensive linemen and linebackers as a blocker all year long and has a nasty mean streak to his game. Meanwhile, Leonard is the only player in league history to achieve at least 160 tackles, seven sacks, and two interceptions in a season. He should win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano reports Keke Coutee (hamstring, questionable) is expected to play Saturday against the Colts. It is not really a surprise after Coutee practiced in full all week, but Bill O’Brien did call him a game-time decision on Thursday. This will be Coutee’s first game action since Week 12, but Houston’s injury issues at receiver should allow him to step right back into a high-usage role. Coutee went for 109 yards on 11 catches against the Colts in Week 4.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 11-4 in the Colts’ last 15 games versus AFC South rivals and 5-2 in their last seven games overall.
The under is 5-2 in the Texans’ last seven games versus AFC South rivals and 13-5 in their last 18 conference matchups.
Even though Deshaun Watson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, the Texans have allowed 62 sacks this season, most in the NFL. Some of that is on Watson holding onto the ball too long, but more often than not it’s Houston’s offensive line allowing too much pressure. That ultimately is what I see being the demise of the Texans in these playoffs. In the last meeting between these two teams, the Colts harassed Watson and overcame an early deficit to win outright as a 4-point dog. With Andrew Luck red-hot, T.Y. Hilton a thorn in Houston’s side, and the Colts no-name defense playing great, I like the Colts to pull off another small upset this afternoon.
NFL Wild Card Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +1