Last Updated on December 11, 2025 9:13 am by Anthony Rome

Thursday night’s NFC South showdown has all the makings of a must-watch prime-time playoff ripple: division positioning on the line, revenge on the schedule, and enough roster uncertainty to keep sharp bettors active. Read on for the weather outlook, the injury ledger that will shape the plan of attack, and why the best play for this Falcons vs. Bucs TNF matchup.

Falcons vs. Bucs Game Day Information

• atchup: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Date: December 11, 2025

• Kickoff: 8:15 PM ET (Thursday Night Football / Prime Video).

• Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL

• Current consensus spread (example from Bovada): Buccaneers -4.0; Total 44.5. (Note: lines can shift into gameday.)

Weather (Will it impact the game?)

The game-time forecast for Raymond James Stadium shows a mild, dry evening: around 55°F with essentially 0% precipitation and light northerly winds near 2 mph for the 8:15 PM ET slot. That suggests a neutral, late-fall environment for offense — no weather-driven turnovers, no wind-bent deep balls, and no excuse to shy away from outside routes or QB mobility. In short: weather should not be a factor in shifting tempo or limiting the passing/ground game.

Injury Report (Impact analysis)

From the Buccaneers’ report (Dec. 10):

• Ruled Out / Out: LB SirVocea Dennis (hip) — Out; S Rashad Wisdom (quad) — Out.

• Doubtful / Questionable: TE Cade Otton (knee) — Doubtful; S/DB Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder) — Doubtful.

• Limited/Practiced: Several key pieces logged practice — Baker Mayfield (shoulder) was full, Haason Reddick returned to limited/full work, Tristan Wirfs has been active in practice. WR Mike Evans is listed with limited participation (questionable status in this report).

Falcons’ notes (from the same combined report):

• Out: WR Drake London — Out.

• Questionable / Limited: TE Kyle Pitts Sr. (knee) — Questionable/limited; DL Brandon Dorlus (groin) — Questionable; David Onyemata (foot) — Questionable. Several offensive linemen and pass-rushers were limited but practiced.

• For Atlanta, Drake London being out removes a primary downfield target, increasing pressure on any remaining WRs and forcing Kirk Cousins and the Falcons to rely more on Bijan Robinson’s rushing and short-area passing to move the chains. If Kyle Pitts is limited or inactive, that’s another blow — Pitts forces matchups and opens up play-action lanes; without him the Falcons’ vertical juice declines and the offense becomes more one-dimensional. That’s exactly the kind of scenario that benefits a disciplined Tampa Bay defense at home.

Public Betting Tickets

Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.

Falcons vs. Bucs Picks & Predictions

Why I like the Bucs:

1. Health and personnel tilt: The Bucs come into a home game with Baker Mayfield rolling and their defensive playmakers — notably Haason Reddick — active in practice. On the other side, Atlanta is missing Drake London and likely will be without consistent downfield weapons; Kyle Pitts’ questionable tag further undermines Atlanta’s ability to threaten vertically. That combination leans toward Tampa Bay controlling the pace, especially on early downs and in manageable passing situations. The injury differential is the core reason to back Tampa Bay to cover a field-goal-and-change spread.

2. Line shape and expected gameday context: Bovada’s snapshot listed Tampa Bay -4.0 (total 44.5) at the time of this write-up, which implies the market already recognizes the Bucs’ edge — but a move to -4.5 (or taking -4.5 where available) buys insurance against a late Falcons adjustment and accounts for home-field precedent in primetime. With neutral weather and Tampa’s near-full complement at QB/OL/defensive lead roles, you’re essentially getting one-half point on an expected 6–8 point game environment (our projection favors a one-score Bucs win with Tampa controlling the closing possessions). If you can find -4.5 or buy down from -4.0 to -4.5 for comparatively low juice, it’s a justifiable, value-oriented play.

Score projection: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20 — Bucs cover -4.5.

Responsible Gaming

For help and resources, visit our Responsible Gaming page or the National Council on Problem Gambling.

Affiliate Disclosure

We may receive affiliate commissions if you sign up through links on our site. Read our full Affiliate Disclosure.