Last Updated on December 15, 2025 2:43 pm by Anthony Rome
Week 15 closes out with a key AFC showdown on Monday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins (6–7) — winners of four straight — visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (7–6) in a game with real playoff implications for both clubs. The Steelers hold a slight edge in the AFC North, but Miami is surging and poised to push them. Pittsburgh opened as a modest favorite (−3.5) in the latest odds with a relatively low total (41.5), reflecting expectations for a competitive, defense‑leaning primetime tilt. What’s the best bet in this Dolphins vs. Steelers matchup?
Dolphins vs. Steelers Game Day Information
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🏟 Stadium: Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh, PA
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⏰ Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
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📺 TV: ESPN/ABC (Monday Night Football)
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📡 Streaming: ESPN app / Fubo
Opening line: Dolphins +3/Steelers -3
Why This Game Matters
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Steelers (7–6): A win strengthens their hold on the AFC North lead and builds momentum in the playoff picture.
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Dolphins (6–7): Miami is pushing for a wild‑card berth; a big prime‑time road win would keep them alive and add to a late‑season surge.
This matchup is tighter than the records suggest — Miami enters on a four‑game win streak and will be no pushover on MNF.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane (RB) avoided a rib fracture and is expected to play after missing snaps due to a rib issue — a major offensive relief for Miami.
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Achane leads the Dolphins with 1,100+ rushing yards and remains a home‑run threat.
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Rasul Douglas has been a defensive catalyst, winning AFC Defensive Player of the Week recently thanks to multiple turnovers and top‑tier coverage metrics.
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Minkah Fitzpatrick returns to Pittsburgh, facing his former home where he starred earlier in his career (no revenge narrative, just football).
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) is healthy but will contend with a tough Steelers pass rush and the cold weather late in the year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
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DK Metcalf (WR) is expected to play despite an abdominal issue that required post‑game hospital evaluation recently.
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Steelers are dealing with a brutal injury report overall, with multiple defensive contributors and offensive linemen banged up or sidelined.
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Offensive tackle depth has been reshuffled recently, with players like Calvin Anderson on IR and inexperienced depth being added just ahead of this game.
Steelers injuries could affect both sides of the ball, especially if key defenders are limited or unavailable.
Public Betting Tickets
Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
Offense & Defense Breakdown
Miami Dolphins
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Run‑heavy when healthy, Miami leaned heavily on Achane last week (many carries vs targets) — particularly effective against weaker run defenses.
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Jaylen Waddle remains the top pass‑game option; target distribution has tilted heavily toward him in recent weeks.
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A solid pass rush and turnover on defense can flip field position and create opportunities.
Pittsburgh Steelers
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A more balanced Steelers offense features Metcalf as a go‑to downfield threat and a run game mixing touches to control tempo.
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The Steelers boast a stout home MNF record — historically dominant at Acrisure Stadium on Monday nights.
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Their defense can be opportunistic; winning turnover margin here would be a clear key.
Matchups That Decide the Game
Dolphins Run Game vs Steelers Rush Defense
With Achane expected to play, Miami’s rushing attack could exploit Pittsburgh’s weaker run‑stop units, especially at home where conditions may be cold late in the season.
Steelers Passing Attack vs Miami Secondary
Steelers rely on Metcalf and intermediate routes to push the chains — disrupting Miami’s secondary and creating third‑down stops will be essential for Pittsburgh.
Turnover Margin
Both teams can flip momentum with turnovers; Miami’s recent defensive play from Douglas helps, but Pittsburgh’s home crowd and pressure can force mistakes.
Weather & Conditions
December nights in Pittsburgh can be cold and windy, potentially slowing Miami’s short passing game and boosting run defenses — a factor in under/over projections.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Picks & Predictions
This Monday night game projects as a hard‑fought battle where defense, clock control, and field position likely dictate the outcome. Miami’s rushing attack and secondary gains give them a puncher’s chance, but Pittsburgh’s home‑field advantage, slight offensive edge, and experience in night games tilt this toward the Steelers.
Final Score Prediction: Steelers 20 — Dolphins 17 (take under 42)
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