KANSAS CITY, MO — On Sunday, November 23, 2025, the Indianapolis Colts head to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a Week 12 matchup kicking off at 1:00 PM ET. With Kansas City now laying 3 points at home and the total sitting at 49.5, the latest Colts vs Chiefs predictions revolve around a spread that has crashed from the opening -9.5 and a total that signals expectations for plenty of scoring opportunities.
How to Watch – Colts vs Chiefs (Week 12)
📅 Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
⏰ Time: 1:00 PM ET
📺 TV: FOX Check local listings (regional coverage)
🏟 Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, Missouri
Opening line: Colts +9.5 / Chiefs -9.5.
Where the Game Will Be Won
The spread drop from Chiefs -9.5 to -3 shows how much the market has upgraded Indianapolis or adjusted its view of Kansas City, turning what looked like a potential blowout into a much tighter projection. A higher total near 50 points suggests both offenses are expected to move the ball, so efficiency in the red zone and limiting empty trips become critical for covering either side.
From a betting angle, the Chiefs still hold home-field advantage and the more explosive passing ceiling, while the Colts need to keep drives alive and avoid quick three-and-outs that let Kansas City stack extra possessions. Recreational bettors should understand that when a line moves this far toward the underdog, you are now choosing between a discounted favorite with upside versus a dog that the market already rewarded with a better number.
NFL Public Betting Week 12
Most tickets are still on Kansas City, but the line moving six and a half points toward the Colts shows that early bettors pushed this number down in a big way. For newer bettors, that often means you are no longer getting the “best of the number” with the underdog, while the favorite becomes more affordable than the opening odds suggested. Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
Colts vs Chiefs Pick & Prediction
Pick: Chiefs -3
Lean: Over 49.5
The market has already reacted strongly toward Indianapolis, but with a majority of tickets still backing Kansas City, the Chiefs are now laying only a field goal at home instead of more than a touchdown. That adjustment makes it easier for casual bettors to side with the better offense and quarterback in what projects as a higher-scoring game, where a few explosive plays can create separation and push the total toward the over.
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