Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds & Pick — Monday Night Football 5PM Update

NFL Week 11 Chiefs vs Broncos Winner - Pick & +730 Parlay Build NFL Week 11 Chiefs vs Broncos Winner - Pick & +730 Parlay Build

Last Updated on October 6, 2025 3:55 pm by Michael Cash

Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF odds, where the line sits, ticket splits, key injuries, weather factors, and an expert pick with buy/sell levels before kickoff.

The Chiefs vs Jaguars odds show Kansas City favored on the road for Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). Market consensus lists Chiefs −3.5 with a total of 51.0 as Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence renew a growing AFC rivalry. Below, we outline opening vs. current numbers, public positioning, notable injuries, and a data-driven expert pick you can use to time the market. Check live movement on our NFL odds page and the public betting chart.

🔔 Follow updates: Twitter/X · Bluesky · Facebook

Chiefs vs Jaguars — Game Info & TV

  • Date: Monday, October 6, 2025
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Location: EverBank Stadium — Jacksonville, FL
  • Network: ESPN

Chiefs vs Jaguars odds — 5pm ET Update

  • Opening: Chiefs −2.5, Total 45.5
  • Current consensus: Chiefs −3.5, Total 45.5
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -200 / Jaguars +170
  • Movement: Steady Chiefs buying through −3 early Sunday; total creeping toward the low-51s on fair-weather forecasts.

💸 Want the best number? Compare live lines before you bet 🏈

Public betting — tickets & money

  • Tickets: Roughly 68% on Kansas City −3.5.
  • Money: Slightly more balanced, with Jacksonville buyback at +4.
  • Market read: Any drift toward −4.5 should invite sharper Jags grabs; if it dips to −3 flat, Chiefs money likely floods in pre-kick.

Injury report — quick hits

  • Chiefs: WR depth improved with mid-week clears; defensive front fully healthy. Secondary still down one rotational CB.
  • Jaguars: RB room nursing minor knocks but Lawrence cleared off the report. OL rotation remains thin — key vs KC pressure.
  • Impact: Jacksonville’s protection vs the Chiefs’ edge rush is the game’s fulcrum; whichever side wins early downs likely dictates tempo.

Weather (Jacksonville)

  • Kickoff outlook: Clear skies, light wind under 5 mph, mid-70s temps. No weather tax on totals.

Trends that matter

  • Kansas City 12-3 SU in prime-time since 2022, 8-6-1 ATS.
  • Jaguars 5-1 ATS last six as home dogs under Doug Pederson.
  • Totals over 50 have gone 3-1 O/U in previous KC–JAX meetings.

Expert pick & best bets for Chiefs vs Jaguars odds

  • ATS: Lean Chiefs −3.5 (buy ≤ −3.5; pass if ≥ −4.5). KC’s balance on both lines + Mahomes’ efficiency indoors translate outdoors in mild conditions.
  • Total: Lean Over 45 (buy ≤ 46; pass < 44). Both teams rank top-10 in early-down EPA; clean weather enhances drive success.
  • Prop look: Travis Kelce anytime TD + alt 60+ yards; Ridley receptions Over if JAX trails early.

🏈 Build your MNF card at the best price: Shop lines now 💰

Insider Alerts

Be first to key line moves & community consensus.

Join the forum, claim your handle, and get our best content by email.

Responsible Gaming

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit NCPGambling.org. Set limits and play responsibly.

Affiliate Disclosure

Some links on this page are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up through our partners at no additional cost to you.