Last Updated on October 6, 2025 3:55 pm by Michael Cash
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF odds, where the line sits, ticket splits, key injuries, weather factors, and an expert pick with buy/sell levels before kickoff.
The Chiefs vs Jaguars odds show Kansas City favored on the road for Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). Market consensus lists Chiefs −3.5 with a total of 51.0 as Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence renew a growing AFC rivalry. Below, we outline opening vs. current numbers, public positioning, notable injuries, and a data-driven expert pick you can use to time the market. Check live movement on our NFL odds page and the public betting chart.
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Chiefs vs Jaguars — Game Info & TV
- Date: Monday, October 6, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: EverBank Stadium — Jacksonville, FL
- Network: ESPN
Chiefs vs Jaguars odds — 5pm ET Update
- Opening: Chiefs −2.5, Total 45.5
- Current consensus: Chiefs −3.5, Total 45.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -200 / Jaguars +170
- Movement: Steady Chiefs buying through −3 early Sunday; total creeping toward the low-51s on fair-weather forecasts.
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Public betting — tickets & money
- Tickets: Roughly 68% on Kansas City −3.5.
- Money: Slightly more balanced, with Jacksonville buyback at +4.
- Market read: Any drift toward −4.5 should invite sharper Jags grabs; if it dips to −3 flat, Chiefs money likely floods in pre-kick.
Injury report — quick hits
- Chiefs: WR depth improved with mid-week clears; defensive front fully healthy. Secondary still down one rotational CB.
- Jaguars: RB room nursing minor knocks but Lawrence cleared off the report. OL rotation remains thin — key vs KC pressure.
- Impact: Jacksonville’s protection vs the Chiefs’ edge rush is the game’s fulcrum; whichever side wins early downs likely dictates tempo.
Weather (Jacksonville)
- Kickoff outlook: Clear skies, light wind under 5 mph, mid-70s temps. No weather tax on totals.
Trends that matter
- Kansas City 12-3 SU in prime-time since 2022, 8-6-1 ATS.
- Jaguars 5-1 ATS last six as home dogs under Doug Pederson.
- Totals over 50 have gone 3-1 O/U in previous KC–JAX meetings.
Expert pick & best bets for Chiefs vs Jaguars odds
- ATS: Lean Chiefs −3.5 (buy ≤ −3.5; pass if ≥ −4.5). KC’s balance on both lines + Mahomes’ efficiency indoors translate outdoors in mild conditions.
- Total: Lean Over 45 (buy ≤ 46; pass < 44). Both teams rank top-10 in early-down EPA; clean weather enhances drive success.
- Prop look: Travis Kelce anytime TD + alt 60+ yards; Ridley receptions Over if JAX trails early.
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