Thanksgiving’s prime-time slate always brings drama, narrative swings and market movement — and Thursday’s big tilt between the Chiefs and Cowboys is no different. If you’re hunting an edge on the spread or want a concise, actionable game plan, this Chiefs vs. Cowboys picks piece breaks down game info, weather, injuries, and gives you a prediction.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Game Day Information
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Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys
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Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025 (Thanksgiving Day)
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Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. CT.
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Location: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, TX (indoor)
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TV: FOX (national Thanksgiving evening window).
Opening line: Chiefs -5.5/Cowboys +5.5
Injury report
The Chiefs’ official Week 13 report shows several key practice statuses you need to know: Patrick Mahomes (groin) — full participation this week; Isiah Pacheco (knee) — full participation and slated to return after missing multiple games; Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy are practicing and trending toward availability; conversely Noah Gray (TE) and Trey Smith (G) are listed out. The return of Pacheco and the apparent availability of Mahomes’ top weapons restores Kansas City’s preferred playbook balance — both the run game and the short-to-intermediate passing game — which helps control tempo and keeps explosive plays in rotation.
Dallas’s injury notes (as shown on the Chiefs’ published report) include a handful of limited/practice-designated players: George Pickens (knee/calf) limited, Tyler Guyton listed DNP on early practices (ankle), Osa Odighizuwa limited (elbow), and a number of defensive pieces listed as limited (Jadeveon Clowney, Dante Fowler, Malik Hooker, Donovan Wilson). Those limited tags suggest the Cowboys may be close to full strength, but several rotational defenders and pass-rushers could be limited.
Public Betting Tickets
Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
Why the Chiefs will cash for bettors
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Restored run/pass balance with Pacheco + Mahomes healthy: Isiah Pacheco returning gives Kansas City the downhill runner who can sustain chains and shorten fields. When defenses must account for a credible rushing threat, play-action and intermediate route concepts open up for Mahomes’ primary targets. That combination reduces predictable third-down passing and helps sustain longer drives — exactly the thing you want when you own the spread.
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Matchup leverage vs. limited Cowboys front/rotational pieces: Dallas shows several limited designations among defensive linemen and linebackers. If those players are downgraded or limited on gameday, Kansas City’s protection — coupled with pre-snap motion and quick-game concepts — can neutralize pass-rush advantage and get Mahomes the short, high-percentage completions that keep chains moving.
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Why buy down to -3 and how to do it: The market currently shows Kansas City around -3.0 at Bovada and other books; that number is the sweet spot between a ’win’ and a push on standard -3.5/-4 pricing. Buying down is an insurance move: take the better juice to convert a -3.5/-4 line into a true -3 to avoid pushes and protect your units.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Picks & Predictions
Play: Chiefs -3 (buy down if you must — get to -3)
Reason: With Patrick Mahomes practicing fully, Isiah Pacheco returning, and several Cowboys defenders limited, KC presents a cleaner blueprint for controlling the game’s flow and covering a short spread. The indoor setting removes weather variance and leaves this as a personnel and coaching matchup tilt toward a disciplined Chiefs attack. Buying down to -3 reduces push risk and is prudent given market movement and Thanksgiving-game volatility.
Final score (projected): Chiefs 30 — Cowboys 24
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