Bills vs. Jets Over/Under Prediction
AFC East rivals meet in East Rutherford on Sunday when the Jets host the Bills at 1:00 p.m. ET. With the total climbing nearly two full points off the opening number, is the over a sneaky play for bettors in this matchup?
457 Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at 458 New York Jets (-2.5); O/U 40.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 8
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Jets are receiving 56% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Bills OC Brian Daboll told reporters Thursday that each of Frank Gore, Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon will have roles in the offense this season. Specifically, Daboll stated, “They’ll all have roles, which may be defined by what they can on a week to week basis.” Rookie Devin Singletary is expected to split early-down work with Frank Gore, while T.J. Yeldon should take up a lot of the work on pass downs. It’s a low-ceiling situation for all three backs, especially after considering Josh Allen’s penchant for both scrambling and consistently throwing downfield.
New York Jets Fantasy Spin
Coach Adam Gase told reporters Thursday that Robby Anderson looks good and is ready to roll for the Jets’ Week 1 matchup against the Bills. Anderson was officially “limited” in practice. The larger issue for Anderson is an expected shadow date with stud CB Tre’Davious White, who should already be on anyone’s short list of the league’s best overall CBs after ranking among the league’s top-two corners in average target separation, burn rate and fantasy points allowed per cover snap last season (Player Profiler). Anderson won his last shadow matchup against White to the tune of a 4-76-1 performance on seven targets, but the entire Jets’ WR group will have their hands full with a Bills’ secondary that joined the Vikings, Jaguars and Colts as the only defenses in the league to allow fewer than 30 DraftKings PPG to the WR position last season.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 6-1 in the Bills’ last seven road games and is 5-1 in their last six games in Week 1.
The over is 6-1 in the Jets’ last seven home games and is 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Even though the matchup doesn’t scream “shootout” on paper, this is still a sneaky-good over play for bettors in Week 1. For starters, the over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these two teams in East Rutherford. The Jets took some heat in hiring Adam Gase, but he’ll do a good job featuring more bootlegs and rollouts to highlight Sam Darnold’s ability to throw when on the move. Le’Veon Bell also gives this team an added dimension in the running game that it didn’t have last season and Anderson is that speed threat on the outside. Meanwhile, the Jets’ run defense will be a problem for the Bills’ new-look running game, but New York can be had through the air. Defensively for Buffalo, the Bills don’t have much of a pass rush so I expect both teams to eventually put the ball in the air a ton, leading to stopped clocks and possibly big scoring plays.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: Bills/Jets OVER 40.5