Christmas night’s Week 17 finale in the NFL spotlights an all-AFC West clash as the Denver Broncos (12-3) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Arrowhead Stadium. Denver has enjoyed one of the league’s best seasons and still controls its own playoff destiny atop the AFC, while the Chiefs have endured a tumultuous year riddled with injury and uncertainty at the most important position — quarterback — leaving this classic rivalry heavily tilted toward Denver’s strength and depth. What’s the smart bet in tonight’s Broncos vs. Chiefs matchup?
Broncos vs. Chiefs Game Day Information
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Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
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Kickoff: ~8:15 p.m. ET
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Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, MO
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TV: Prime Video (NFL Christmas Night Game)
Opening line: Broncos +4.5 / Chiefs -4.5
Key Notes & Storylines
Broncos Strengths:
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Overall Performance: Denver’s 12-3 record puts them atop the AFC standings and fighting for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. They’ve shown strong defensive play — particularly against the run — and an evolving offensive identity led by Bo Nix.
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Bo Nix: The Broncos’ QB has put together a solid season, throwing for 3,600+ yards with 24 TDs and 10 interceptions and adding value with his legs, helping balance Denver’s attack.
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Receiving Corps: Courtland Sutton has been a consistent target (just under 1,000 yards and seven TDs), and Troy Franklin brings explosive playmaking to the perimeter.
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Defense: Denver’s defense ranks among the NFL’s toughest — especially against the run — and consistently pressures opposing passers, a major edge in this game.
Chiefs Challenges:
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Quarterback Saga: Kansas City will be playing third-string QB Chris Oladokun after both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew suffered season-ending knee injuries, leaving the offense in inexperienced hands.
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Injuries: Several Chiefs playmakers, including key cornerbacks and wide receivers such as Rashee Rice and Trent McDuffie, are out for the season, significantly weakening both offensive and defensive units.
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Offensive Output: With a makeshift passing attack and limited offensive firepower, Kansas City has scored just 22.5 points per game and ranks in the bottom half of key offensive categories.
Rivalry Edge:
While Denver has had success in recent head-to-head matchups — including a lopsided win earlier in 2025 — Kansas City’s home crowd and traditional playoff pedigree make this rivalry unique and fresh each time.
Public Betting Tickets
Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
Injury Reports
Broncos:
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Denver has had some injuries throughout the season, including to players like Dre Greenlaw, Pat Bryant, Luke Wattenberg, and Nate Adkins, but has largely managed health well down the stretch with key contributors active heading into Christmas.
Chiefs:
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Kansas City’s QB room is depleted with Mahomes and Minshew out, leaving Chris Oladokun to start. Several defensive backs and wide receivers, such as Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Rashee Rice, and Tyquan Thornton, are on IR.
Broncos vs. Chiefs MNF Picks & Predictions
Given Denver’s elite defense, balanced offense, and clear quarterback advantage — even with spotty rushing numbers — this matchup tilts heavily toward the Broncos. Kansas City’s depleted roster and first-time starter under center make sustaining drives and scoring difficult, especially against Denver’s pass rush.
Final Prediction: Broncos 30 — Chiefs 14
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