Bills vs. Texans Same Game Parlay: Will Josh Allen be held in check?

Last Updated on November 20, 2025 11:20 am by Anthony Rome

Thursday night’s prime-time tilt at NRG has the kind of matchup that makes bettors hungry for a compact, high-value Same Game Parlay. We break down four legs that fit the game flow we expect — a run-game touchdown from Houston, a limited passing day for Josh Allen, a slow first half, and heavy work for Nico Collins — and explain why the numbers line up. Read on for the reasoning behind each selection and how the four pieces fit together for our Bills vs. Texans Same Game Parlay.

Bills vs. Texans Game day Information

• Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

• Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025

• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET / 7:15 p.m. CT.

• Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

• TV / Stream: Thursday Night Football — Prime Video (local over-the-air coverage in market).

Leg 1: Woody Marks Anytime TD (+125)

The Bills have allowed a rushing touchdown in eight straight games (the longest streak in the league currently) — their longest such streak since 2016 (nine games). Houston’s offense has leaned more on their run schemes and short-yardage rushing work with Davis Mills under center; Marks has been involved in short-area goal-line and heavy-contact snaps. With Buffalo’s recent trend of giving up rushing TDs and Houston’s willingness to finish drives on the ground, Marks anytime TD (+125) is an attractive, high-leverage first leg.

Public Betting Tickets

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Leg 2: Josh Allen Under 222.5 Passing Yards

This number cashes if Buffalo leans on the run or the Texans can get pressure and force shorter completions. When these teams met a year ago (Week 5), Allen had one of the worst passing games of his career — a 30% completion clip (9-of-30) for 131 yards (4.4 Y/A) with one passing TD, though he added rushing yards.

Allen’s volume and efficiency can be depressed by a combination of Houston’s defense and the Texans’ desire to slow the tempo of the game. The under 222.5 is a play that benefits from a game script where Buffalo grinds out drives and leans on Allen as a runner rather than as a high-yardage passer.

Leg 3: Under 21.5 First Half (total points, 1H)

History with Mills starting shows Houston’s offense getting started slowly; in his starts the Texans manufactured few first-half touchdowns. Over the past two weeks (with Mills in), Houston has scored a touchdown on only 1 of 11 first-half possessions, and Mills’ passing TD production has come primarily in the second half of those games. If Mills and the Texans continue to produce lagging first-half offense while Buffalo similarly uses steady drives and clock control, the first-half scoring environment looks sleepy enough to land under 21.5.

Leg 4: Nico Collins 7+ receptions (+132)

Nico Collins has been the clear target priority for Mills in relief. He stayed hot vs. Tennessee with 9 receptions on 10 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. That outing extended a run of heavy target share — the fourth consecutive game where Collins saw double-digit targets in Mills’ recent relief work.

Over the last three weeks in relief of C.J. Stroud, Mills has targeted Collins on roughly 28.2% of his throws, and Collins has posted at least 7 receptions in each of the past three weeks. Even in a tougher matchup, Collins remains the safe, high-volume receiving option for Houston; the 7+ catches leg is a logical correlation to the Mills-to-Collins connection and fits well with the earlier first-half under (Collins racks catches via short/intermediate volume rather than explosive scores).

Bills vs. Texans Same Game Parlay Predictions

• Woody Marks — Anytime TD (+125)

• Josh Allen — Under 222.5 passing yards

• First Half — Under 21.5 total points

• Nico Collins — 7+ receptions (+132)

• Odds: +1900

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