Black Friday football delivers one of the most bet-on windows of the entire season, and this matchup between Chicago and Philadelphia has all the ingredients bettors crave — explosive playmakers, contrasting styles, and a total that’s been tugged in both directions by early action. If you’re diving into Bears vs. Eagles Picks for this holiday showdown, you’ll want the full picture before firing on a side or total. From the weather and injuries to the underlying matchup dynamics, this breakdown walks you through everything that matters before you lock in your ticket.
Bears vs. Eagles Game Day Information
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Matchup: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
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Date: Friday, November 28, 2025 (Black Friday)
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Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. CT (national afternoon window).
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Location: Lincoln Financial Field — Philadelphia, PA (open-air)
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TV / Stream: Amazon Prime Video / network listings for the Black Friday window.
Opening line: Bears +6.5/Eagles -6.5
Weather — will it impact the game?
Lincoln Financial Field is open-air and late-November evenings in Philadelphia can be brisk. Current mid-range forecasts for Friday afternoon/evening show cool, clear conditions (temperatures in the 30s–40s with light winds), which is unlikely to materially suppress scoring — crowd noise and a firm surface still favor normal offensive play. RotoGrinders’ NFL weather hub and NFLWeather’s Philadelphia forecast both show light wind and no precipitation for the game window, so the matchup should play like a standard November day in Philly rather than a weather-driven slog. In short: weather is unlikely to push this toward a lower-scoring game; the book lines already assume a typical open-air November setting.
Injury report
The Eagles opened their short-week estimates with a sizable list of monitored players: per Fox Sports’ Week 13 report, Philadelphia listed multiple names including Saquon Barkley (limited), DeVonta Smith (questionable/shoulder), Lane Johnson (foot) among others. Several of those players were listed as limited or day-to-day in the estimated report, which matters because availability for Barkley and Smith directly affects the Eagles’ ability to sustain long, balanced drives or generate explosive passing plays. If Barkley is limited but active, Philly can still control tempo; if he’s out, the offense may lean more heavily on Jackson’s scrambling and high-leverage passing concepts.
Chicago’s early practice reports show holes in the linebacker and edge rotation and some defensive-day DNPs, while cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon showed signs of returning to full participation in mid-week work. Those defensive depth questions (and recent DNPs for several Bears defenders) increase the likelihood the Bears will concede chunk plays and quick-strike scoring opportunities — exactly the kind of volatility that inflates totals. In other words: the Eagles may be slightly constrained in two-minute or red-zone personnel if they’re down starters, but the Bears’ defensive limitations create scoring windows that favor the OVER.
Public Betting Tickets
Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
Why the OVER 44 will cash
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Tempo and possession disparity favor more possessions (and points). Philadelphia plays at a decent pace when it wants to — especially on offense when the game script lets them. The Eagles’ ability to mix explosive pass concepts with a high-volume rushing plan forces opponents into more plays and more third-down situations. Chicago’s defense has recently struggled to consistently win early downs and limit chunk plays; when a defense gives up a few big gains, that erodes field-position advantages and leads to more scoring possessions for both teams. With both sides capable of quick-strike touchdowns, the natural result is more possessions crossing the mid-40s total.
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Personnel pockets create big-play opportunities. The Bears show some inconsistency in their pass-rush rotation and linebacker availability; meanwhile, even if Philadelphia lists a few limited players, the Eagles still possess enough playmakers (passing and rushing) to exploit single-high or nickel vulnerabilities. If DeVonta Smith plays limited or if Saquon Barkley is hobbled but active, Philly will compensate with intermediate passing and Jackson’s designed mobility — both of which create splash plays and increase scoring upside. The Bears’ occasional secondary lapses give the Eagles room for high-value plays; conversely, the Bears’ offense is not one-dimensional and can answer with chunk plays of its own when matchups present. Those reciprocal big-play dynamics lift totals.
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Situational factors: Black Friday environment and officiating tendencies. National holiday games often produce scoreboard-focused coaching (aggressive fourth-down calls, fewer conservative clock-killing sequences early) and referees calling to keep the game moving. Add in the likelihood of both teams being aggressive on special teams and in short-field situations, and you get more scoring opportunities than a typical low-key Sunday tilt. With the market already near 44–45, the combination of tempo, personnel mismatches, and situational aggressiveness makes OVER 44 an attractive, evidence-backed play.
Bears vs. Eagles Picks & Predictions
Play: OVER 44
Reason: Open-air but mild weather, Bears defensive depth issues, and an Eagles offense that can create chunk plays and fast drives together create the necessary ingredients for a mid-40s to low-50s game. The matchup tilts toward increased possessions and reciprocal scoring.
Final score (projected): Eagles 28 — Bears 20
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