Last Updated on February 16, 2026 9:51 am by Anthony Rome
The NFL has entered an era of rapid turnover at the top of each division, and the early 2026 NFL division futures market reflects that volatility. After a historic wave of new champions in 2025, bettors now face two key questions: how many new division winners will emerge and whether another worst-to-first turnaround is coming.
This breakdown looks at recent trends, opening odds across every division, and what they signal for the 2026 season.
Recent Division Winner Trends
Parity has defined the NFL over the last three seasons:
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Seven new division winners in 2025, with the Philadelphia Eagles the only repeat champion.
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Two new winners in 2024.
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Four new winners in 2023.
Worst-to-first turnarounds have also appeared sporadically:
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2025: the New England Patriots jumped from last to first.
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2024: no team achieved the feat.
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2023: the Houston Texans completed the turnaround.
Opening 2026 odds currently project no worst-to-first team, highlighting how difficult sustained parity can be year to year.
2026 NFL Division Odds Overview
AFC Favorites
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AFC East: Buffalo Bills (4/5) lead, followed by the Patriots (6/5), Miami Dolphins (20/1), and New York Jets (20/1).
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AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (1/1) sit narrowly ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals (9/4), with the Pittsburgh Steelers (17/4) and Cleveland Browns (9/1) trailing.
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AFC South: Texans (3/2) slightly favored over the Jacksonville Jaguars (8/5), Indianapolis Colts (7/2), and Tennessee Titans (8/1).
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AFC West: The Los Angeles Chargers (17/10) hold a slim edge over the Kansas City Chiefs (9/5), with the Denver Broncos (11/5) and Las Vegas Raiders (16/1) behind.
Key takeaway: Bills, Ravens, Texans, and Chargers are all projected new division winners compared to 2025.
NFC Favorites
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NFC East: Eagles (5/6) favored over the Dallas Cowboys (11/4), Washington Commanders (9/2), and New York Giants (7/1).
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NFC North: Green Bay Packers (8/5) narrowly lead the Detroit Lions (9/4), followed by the Chicago Bears (13/4) and Minnesota Vikings (7/1).
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NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/5) top the Atlanta Falcons (7/2), New Orleans Saints (7/2), and Carolina Panthers (17/4).
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NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (3/2) lead the Los Angeles Rams (8/5), San Francisco 49ers (5/2), and Arizona Cardinals (40/1).
Projected new winners here: Packers and Buccaneers.
How Many New Division Winners in 2026?
Over/Under: 4.5 new winners
Recent history strongly supports volatility:
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7 new winners in 2025
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2 in 2024
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4 in 2023
Opening odds already project six potential new champions (Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Packers, Buccaneers).
Betting lean: Over 4.5
League parity, quarterback movement, and schedule rotation continue to fuel division turnover—making another high-change season more likely than stability.
Will a Worst-to-First Team Emerge?
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Yes: -180 (64.3% implied probability)
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No: +140
Despite projection models showing none, betting odds favor at least one turnaround.
Most plausible candidates
In likelihood order:
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Lions
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Saints
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Giants
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Titans
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Browns
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Cardinals
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Raiders
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Jets
Given recent precedent (two occurrences in the past three seasons), the market expectation of another worst-to-first jump is understandable.
Betting lean: Yes (-180)
Final Outlook for 2026 NFL Divisions
The 2026 futures board tells a clear story:
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Turnover remains the norm, not the exception.
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More than half the league’s divisions could change hands.
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A worst-to-first surge is statistically and historically viable.
For bettors, that means embracing volatility rather than fighting it—because in today’s NFL, division crowns rarely stay in the same place for long.
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