2026 NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Will John Harbaugh win with Giants?

Jesse Minter at 7/1 signals serious market respect.

Minter is stepping into a head coaching role with a roster already possessing defensive talent. Thus, voters could reward a quick turnaround built on defense — especially in a league that skews offense-heavy.

The Coach of the Year formula often favors:

• First-year head coaches

• Defensive masterminds who flip a struggling unit (not necessarily the case in Baltimore, but that side of the ball was injury-riddled last season)

• Teams projected to finish third or fourth in their division (again, not necessarily the case in Baltimore, but the Ravens did miss the playoffs last season)

If the Ravens jumps from bottom-10 defense to top-5 efficiency while winning 10+ games, Minter becomes extremely live.

Verdict: Strong narrative profile. Much better value than Harbaugh at current pricing.

Joe Brady (9/1) — Offensive Explosion Candidate

Joe Brady at 9/1 screams “offensive leap” scenario. This is especially true if his team wasn’t projected to contend. Voters love the “genius play-caller unlocks franchise QB” storyline. We know he’ll be set up with success thanks to Josh Allen.

Verdict: One of the best combinations of upside and reasonable odds on the board.

Mid-Tier Value: 12/1–25/1 Range

This is where smart bettors often find gold.

Kellen Moore (12/1)

Kellen Moore was long been viewed as a head-coach-in-waiting before he got the Saints’ job before the 2025 season. He’s now leading a team with offensive weapons and stabilizes quarterback play, 12/1 could age very well. He fits the “young offensive mind reshapes franchise” mold perfectly and he built some momentum in his first season in New Orleans.

Kevin Stefanski (12/1)

Kevin Stefanski already has Coach of the Year hardware. That can hurt him — voters are less likely to repeat unless the story is massive. That said, he has more talent in Atlanta than he did in Cleveland…assuming, of course, that he can finally figure out the quarterback situation.

Dan Campbell (25/1)

Dan Campbell at 25/1 is fascinating. If the Detroit Lions finish with the NFC’s best record, which is possible given the team’s immense talent, then Campbell could claim the award next season.

This is a sneaky value if Detroit dominates rather than just competes.

Deep Longshots Worth a Sprinkle

Andy Reid (55/1)

It’s rare for Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year because the Kansas City Chiefs are always expected to be elite. However, with Patrick Mahomes unlikely to be ready for Week 1, the Chiefs are no longer viewed as the team to beat in the AFC.

If Kansas City reloads after roster turnover and still wins 13–14 games? Voter fatigue might flip into appreciation.

At 55/1, that’s lottery-ticket value.

DeMeco Ryans (45/1)

DeMeco Ryans fits the defensive resurgence model. If Houston takes another leap into Super Bowl contention, 45/1 becomes very interesting.

🏆 So Who Has the Best Betting Value?

Here’s how the board shapes up from a betting perspective:

Best Overall Value: Joe Brady (9/1)

Balanced odds, explosive offensive upside, and strong narrative potential.

Best Narrative Play: Jesse Minter (7/1)

First-year defensive turnaround is a classic COY pathway.

Best Longshot: Dan Campbell (25/1)

If Detroit dominates the NFC, this number disappears fast.

Fade the Favorite: John Harbaugh (5/1)

He absolutely can win in New York — but you’re paying peak narrative tax.

What History Tells Us

Coach of the Year typically goes to:

• A team that improves by 3+ wins

• A first- or second-year coach

• A team outperforming preseason expectations

• A division winner no one projected

Keep that framework in mind when betting this award.