Last Updated on December 24, 2011 4:00 pm by Anthony Rome
NFL Week 16 Free Picks
(The Spread) – Following a successful Week 15, we look to make it back-to-back winning weeks when we hand out our free picks for this Saturday’s NFL action.
After a slow start, the Saints kicked it into high gear and cruised to an easy victory as a 9-point favorite over the Vikings. The Panthers (+6.5 at Houston) and Seahawks (+3.5 at Chicago) also won outright as road underdogs, giving us a 3-1 Sunday in Week 15. Our lone loss came via the Jets, who were absolutely pummeled by the Eagles in Philadelphia. The 3-1 finish improved our season record to 30-29-1 against the spread with just two weeks remaining.
Vikings vs. Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Next to Indianapolis and St. Louis, there may not be a more hapless team right now than Minnesota. That said, I like the Redskins a heck of a lot more as a 6.5-point underdog than a 6.5-point favorite – I don’t care where the game is being played. At 5-9 the Skins don’t have the right to overlook anyone but don’t be surprised if the lowly Vikings make a game out of things today at FedEx Field. According to latest NFL trends, the Skins are just 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as a favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.
NFL WEEK 16 FREE PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7
Ben Roethlisberger is expected to sit today out and while Charlie Batch is more than capable of leading the Steelers to a victory over the brutal Rams, 15.5 points is a lot to lay on a team that will probably play things close to the vest. Look for Pittsburgh to keep things on the ground with Rashard Mendenhall and allow its defense to control the game from the start. With Sam Bradford out for the Rams, Josh McDaniels will likely scale back the offense again for Kellen Clemens, who didn’t play all that poorly last Sunday versus the Bengals. If St. Louis’ defense can play well, the Rams should keep this game within two touchdowns.
NFL WEEK 16 FREE PICK: ST. LOUIS RAMS +12
The Lions were extremely fortunate to escape Oakland last Sunday with a victory and while they need just one more win to clinch a postseason berth for the first time since 1999, I don’t think it’ll come today. The Chargers are finally playing like the team that everyone expected they would back in preseason. All of a sudden Philip Rivers has stopped turning the ball over, Ryan Mathews is running like a true featured back, and the defense has been solid as well. Vincent Jackson’s groin injury is a concern but Detroit’s secondary is so banged up that Rivers should have no problem moving the ball through the air. The Bolts are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games against the Lions and 5-1 ATS in their last six December games. Look for San Diego to pull off the small upset.
NFL WEEK 16 FREE PICK: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +1
The Cowboys have had a few opportunities to increase their lead over the Giants in the NFC East and have failed to do so. While they do hold a one-game lead over New York, Dallas has a way of choking when the pressure is on. While the Eagles are far from flawless (especially sitting at 6-8 coming into the week), they’ve won two in a row and three of their last five. If they play with the same type of urgency and focus as they did last week against the Jets, then Philly should have no problems pulling off a small upset today in Dallas. The Cowboys are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.
NFL WEEK 16 FREE PICK: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +1
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