Last Updated on December 27, 2009 7:15 am by Anthony Rome
Ravens vs. Steelers Pick
AFC North rivals clash in Week 16 with the postseason on the line when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens at 1:00PM ET on Sunday.
The Ravens beat the Bears 31-7 as a 10.5-point favorite in Week 15, as the combined score fell under the posted total of 39 points. Joe Flacco threw for 234 yards with four touchdowns for Baltimore, while tight end Todd Heap hauled in five passes for 56 yards with two touchdowns in the win.
The Steelers beat the Packers 37-36 as a 3-point favorite in Week 15, while the combined score fell under the posted total of 42 points. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 503 yards with three touchdowns for Pittsburgh, while receiver Mike Wallace caught two passes for 79 yards and two scores.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Steelers 3-point favorites over the Ravens in Week 16. The over/under total for today’s game has been set at 42 points.
Some key trends to keep in mind for this game is that Baltimore is 15-8 against the spread in its last 23 games and 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games on the road. The Steelers are just 1-5 against the number in their last six games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home.
Our free pick prediction for this game is the Ravens +3 and the under 42. Baltimore matches up well with Pittsburgh and isn’t afraid to play on the road. The Steelers’ secondary has been horrid this season, so Flacco and company should be able to take advantage and move the ball at will.
The total opened at 41 and has been bid up to 42, which means the public loves the over – and for good reason. The Steelers and Packers combined for 73 points last week and both Pittsburgh and Baltimore’s defense have given up a fair amount of points this season.
That said, both of these teams know each other well and therefore the score should stay somewhat low throughout. Plus, when the line moves that much it’s usually beneficial to take the points. We like the under and recommend waiting until close to kick off to see if the total gets bid up more.
Our NFL Week 16 Free Pick for this matchup is: BALTIMORE RAVENS +3 and UNDER 42.
Ravens vs. Steelers Current Odds
119 Baltimore Ravens +3 Over 42
120 Pittsburgh Steelers –3 Under 42
Baltimore is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
BALTIMORE
[OT] 08/04/2009 – Adam Terry IR ( Knee )
[CB] 10/19/2009 – Samari Rolle IR ( Neck )
[WR] 08/14/2009 – Marcus Smith IR ( ACL )
[DT] 08/15/2009 – Lamar Divens IR ( Hip )
[LB] 09/06/2009 – Jason Phillips IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/05/2009 – Brendon Ayanbadejo IR ( Quad )
[DB] 11/17/2009 – Haruki Nakamura IR ( Ankle )
[RB] 11/24/2009 – Matt Lawrence IR ( Knee )
[CB] 11/24/2009 – Fabian Washington IR ( Knee )
[FS] 12/20/2009 – Ed Reed "?" Sunday vs. Pittsburgh ( Hip )
[OL] 12/20/2009 – David Hale "?" Sunday vs. Pittsburgh ( Concussion )
[OT] 12/20/2009 – Jared Gaither "?" Sunday vs. Pittsburgh ( Foot )
[WR] 12/20/2009 – Mark Clayton "?" Sunday vs. Pittsburgh ( Hamstring )
[DT] 12/19/2009 – Brandon McKinney IR ( Back )
[WR] 12/20/2009 – Kelley Washington "?" Sunday vs. Pittsburgh ( Ankle )
[S] 12/20/2009 – KJ Gerard "?" Sunday vs. Pittsburgh ( Thigh )
[CB] 12/21/2009 – Lardarius Webb IR ( ACL )
PITTSBURGH
[FB] 09/29/2009 – Frank Summers IR ( Back )
[DE] 10/18/2009 – Aaron Smith IR ( Shoulder )
[S] 12/23/2009 – Troy Polamalu is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Knee )
[OG] 12/20/2009 – Chris Kemoeatu is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Wrist )
[WR] 12/22/2009 – Limas Sweed out for season ( Illness )
[LB] 12/22/2009 – Greg Warren IR ( Knee )
[WR] 12/23/2009 – Hines Ward is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Hamstring )
[DE] 12/24/2009 – Brett Keisel "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Neck )
[RB] 12/24/2009 – Willie Parker "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Knee )
[CB] 12/24/2009 – Anthony Madison "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Illness )
[HB] 12/25/2009 – Mike Wallace "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Knee )
Posted: 12/27/09 7:15AM ET