Last Updated on December 10, 2009 11:00 am by Anthony Rome
Steelers vs. Browns Pick
Week 14 kicks off with a Thursday night football clash between AFC North Division rivals, as the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers at 8:20PM ET.
In Week 13, the Steelers were shocked at home by the Raiders, who beat them 27-24. Pittsburgh failed to cover as 14.5-point favorites, while the combined score went over the posted total of 37 points. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 278 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 103 yards an a score on 20 carries.
The Browns made a fourth quarter run last Sunday in efforts to beat the Chargers at home, but they eventually lost, 30-23. Cleveland managed to cover the 14-point spread and the combined score went over the posted total of 42.5 points. Brady Quinn threw for 271 yards with three touchdowns for Cleveland, while Jerome Harrison caught seven passes for 62 yards and two touchdowns.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Steeelers 10-point favorites over the Browns in Week 14. The over/under total for Thursday’s matchup is sitting at 33 points.
The Steelers are just 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games, while the Browns are 6-3 against the number in their last nine contests. Pittsburgh is 8-3-1 against the spread in its last 12 games when playing Cleveland and 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games playing on the road versus the Browns.
Even though the trends favor the Steelers in this matchup, they’ve lost four straight and are struggling mightily with injuries. Roethlisberger played last week, but suffered a head injury two weeks ago. Receiver Hines Ward is battling a hamstring injury and might not play, while safety Troy Polamalu is out with a knee injury.
Pittsburgh is still the superior team over Cleveland, but we’ll take the 10 points with a Browns team that is at home and has played significantly better of late. These two teams know each other well, which is why we like Cleveland to keep the game somewhat close.
With the total sitting so low, we recommend taking the over 33. The total has gone over in six of Cleveland’s last nine games when playing Pittsburgh and we think after a slow start, things will pick up in the second half and the total will be covered easily.
Our NFL Week 14 Free Pick for this matchup is: CLEVELAND BROWNS +10 and OVER 33.
Steelers vs. Browns Current Odds
101 Pittsburgh Steelers –10 (-600 moneyline) Over 33
102 Cleveland Browns +10 (+400 moneyline) Under 33
Pittsburgh is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
PITTSBURGH
[FB] 09/29/2009 – Frank Summers IR ( Back )
[DE] 10/18/2009 – Aaron Smith IR ( Shoulder )
[S] 12/06/2009 – Troy Polamalu doubtful Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Knee )
[QB] 12/08/2009 – Charlie Batch is upgraded to expected to be available Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Wrist )
[DE] 12/07/2009 – Travis Kirschke is upgraded to probable Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Calf )
[WR] 12/07/2009 – Hines Ward is downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Hamstring )
[CB] 12/09/2009 – William Gay probable Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Concussion )
[RB] 12/07/2009 – Rashard Mendenhall injured last game, probable Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Ankle )
CLEVELAND
[WR] 08/20/2009 – Donte Stallworth out for season ( Suspension )
[OG] 09/01/2009 – Ryan Tucker IR ( Knee )
[OG] 09/01/2009 – Fred Weary IR ( Leg )
[RB] 10/03/2009 – James Davis IR ( Shoulder )
[LB] 10/20/2009 – D’Qwell Jackson IR ( Pectoral )
[LB] 11/03/2009 – Eric Barton IR ( Neck )
[TE] 11/19/2009 – Steve Heiden IR ( Ankle )
[P] 11/19/2009 – Dave Zastudil IR ( Knee )
[DE] 12/08/2009 – Kenyon Coleman is downgraded to expected to miss Thursday vs. Pittsburgh ( Knee )
[DT] 11/30/2009 – Shaun Rogers IR ( Ankle )
[FS] 12/03/2009 – Brodney Pool IR ( Concussion )
[RB] 12/02/2009 – Jamal Lewis IR ( Head )
[TE] 09/06/2009 – Evan Moore IR ( Undisclosed )
[DE] 12/07/2009 – C.J. Mosley IR ( Leg )
[CB] 12/08/2009 – Eric Wright doubtful Thursday vs. Pittsburgh ( Hamstring )
Posted: 12/10/09 12:00PM ET