Last Updated on December 20, 2009 7:05 am by Anthony Rome
Patriots vs. Bills Pick
AFC East rivals clash in Week 15 when the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots at 12:00PM ET on Sunday.
The Patriots beat the Panthers 20-10, but failed to cover the 12.5-point spread. The combined score fell under the posted total of 43.5 points as Tom Brady threw for 192 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the win. Wes Welker added 10 receptions for 105 yards for New England.
The Bills beat the Chiefs 16-10 as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday, while the combined score went under the posted total of 38 points. Fred Jackson rushed for 99 yards on 20 carries in the win, while Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for only 86 yards with a touchdown and a pick.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Patriots 7-point favorites over the Bills in Week 15. The over/under total for this game has been set at 41 points.
The Bills are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games when playing New England and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home. The Patriots have much better trend numbers, as they’re 5-1 against the spread in their last six games when playing Buffalo and 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing the Bills on the road.
But despite those numbers, the Patriots have been brutal on the road this season. In their last three road games, they’re 0-3 against the spread and 0-3 straight up. For whatever reason, this New England team just hasn’t gotten done on the road.
Our free pick prediction for this game is the Bills +7. The Pats are the superior team, but there’s a ton of value in a home team getting seven points, especially when their opponent has struggled as much as New England has. We also favor the under in this matchup, which has covered in 8 of New England’s last 11 games when playing on the road against Buffalo.
Our NFL Week 15 Free Pick for this matchup is: BUFFALO BILLS +7 and OVER 41.
Patriots vs. Bills Current Odds
309 New England Patriots –7 (-340 moneyline) Over 41
310 Buffalo Bills +7 (+270 moneyline) Under 41
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
NEW ENGLAND
[LB] 08/26/2009 – Tyrone McKenzie IR ( Knee )
[OL] 09/05/2009 – George Bussey IR ( Knee )
[RB] 12/13/2009 – Fred Taylor "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo ( Ankle )
[WR] 11/18/2009 – Brandon Tate IR ( Knee )
[OG] 12/13/2009 – Stephen Neal "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo ( Ankle )
[SS] 12/09/2009 – Bret Lockett IR ( Groin )
[DE] 12/13/2009 – Myron Pryor "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo ( Chest )
[DE] 12/13/2009 – Ty Warren injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo ( Ankle )
[OT] 12/13/2009 – Nick Kaczur injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo ( Head )
[WR] 12/13/2009 – Sam Aiken "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo ( Shoulder )
[DT] 12/13/2009 – Vince Wilfork injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo ( Foot )
BUFFALO
[OT] 10/01/2009 – Brad Butler IR ( Knee )
[TE] 09/22/2009 – Derek Schouman IR ( Knee )
[CB] 10/01/2009 – Leodis McKelvin IR ( Fibula )
[LB] 10/12/2009 – Marcus Buggs IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/14/2009 – Kawika Mitchell IR ( Knee )
[LB] 11/20/2009 – Keith Ellison IR ( Quad )
[OL] 11/16/2009 – Demetrius Bell IR ( Knee )
[CB] 12/13/2009 – Ashton Youboty "?" Sunday vs. New England ( Ankle )
[TE] 11/18/2009 – Derek Fine IR ( Knee )
[C] 11/25/2009 – Seth McKinney IR ( Knee )
[OL] 11/23/2009 – Eric Wood IR ( Knee )
[WR] 12/13/2009 – Justin Jenkins "?" Sunday vs. New England ( Knee )
[OL] 12/14/2009 – Jonathan Scott injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. New England ( Eye )
[OG] 12/17/2009 – Kendall Simmons "?" Sunday vs. New England ( Shoulder )
Posted: 12/19/09 07:00AM ET