Bills vs. Patriots Week 16 Prediction
A pivotal battle in the AFC East will ensue on Sunday when the Patriots host the Bills at 1:00 p.m. ET. Will Buffalo get its revenge over New England or will the Pats once again cash for bettors in this matchup?
471 Buffalo Bills (+1) at 472 New England Patriots (-1); o/u 43.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 26, 2021
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Buffalo Bills DFS Spin
Josh Allen completed 19-of-34 passes for 210 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in the Bills' 31-14, Week 15 win over the Panthers, adding three carries for 24 yards. It wasn't the most high-octane performance from the Bills offense. Allen handed the ball off 23 times and seemed less inclined to rush the ball himself. The Bills even ran an Isaiah McKenzie wildcat play, which may have been a designed rush for Allen if the quarterback was dealing with a foot sprain. Allen looked good when dropping back. He hit Stefon Diggs for an 11 yard TD on play action. He then connected twice with Gabriel Davis, first in the back for the end zone on a beautiful 20-yard throw. He then found Davis wide open on a 4th-and-3 play action, which iced the game. Allen's interception game on a heady play by Jeremy Chin, who baited Allen into a throw to Diggs in zone coverage. Overall, it was a strong game from Allen, who was held back more by the Bills' playcalling than the Panthers' defense. He will be a locked-in QB1 in Week 16's rematch with the Patriots.
New England Patriots DFS Spin
Mac Jones completed 26-of-45 passes for 299 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in New England's 27-17 Week 15 loss to the Colts. Both of Jones' touchdowns came in the fourth quarter while trailing 20-3, which tells you exactly how the first three quarters went for New England. Even when the Patriots had momentum, connecting on consecutive passes on their first possession out of the half, Jones made an errant throw to Colts LB Bobby Okereke for the rookie's second turnover of the evening. The Patriots opened the game with six failed possessions — punt, blocked punt, punt, INT, INT, turnover on downs — including a turnover inside the 10-yard line but did at least manage to make it competitive at the end thanks to Carson Wentz's fourth-quarter interception in between four defenders. Jones will look to bounce back in a crucial (and repeat) divisional matchup against the Bills in Week 16.
Bills vs. Patriots Betting Prediction
The road team is 18-6-2 against the spread in the last 26 meetings between these two teams, while the underdog is 4-1-1 against the number in the last six meetings and the Bills are 4-1-2 at the betting window in their last seven games in Foxboro. The Bills are also 8-3-2 against the spread in their last 13 games as a road underdog, are 5-2 against the number in their last seven games as an underdog either home or away and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous contest. The Patriots, meanwhile, are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games played in the month of December.
NFL WEEK 16 BETTING PREDICTION: BUFFALO BILLS +1