Broncos vs. Chiefs Total Prediction
AFC West rivals clash in Kansas City this Sunday when the Chiefs host the Broncos at 1:00 p.m. ET. With the number dropping from 47 down to 45.5, is the best play for bettors when it comes to the total the under?
317 Denver Broncos (+10) at 318 Kansas City Chiefs (-10); O/U 45.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 15, 2019
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Broncos are receiving 55% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Denver Broncos Fantasy Spin
Drew Lock completed 22-of-27 passes for 309 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in Denver's Week 14 win over the Texans. Lock had as many touchdowns (3) as incompletions (3) when the Broncos headed into the intermission with a 31-3 lead. He also joined John Elway and Tim Tebow as the only rookie quarterbacks for Denver to throw for at least 300 yards in a game. The 23-year-old aced his first career road start, pasting Houston's secondary for three easy scores to Noah Fant (4/114/1), Jeff Heuerman, and Royce Freeman through the first two quarters. His lone mistake — a boneheaded attempt between two defenders that inevitably resulted in an interception at the pylon — also showed why the big-armed prospect fell to the second round in last year's draft. It was still an encouraging outing as Lock hit 10 different receivers to move his career record to 2-0 in as many starts. He faces a much tougher task in an NFC West showdown against Kansas City in Week 15.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Patrick Mahomes (hand) took snaps under center at Wednesday's practice. Per NFL Network's James Palmer, Mahomes' hand was "really swollen" on Monday and Tuesday but improved enough for him to get in what the Chiefs deemed as a "full" practice on Wednesday. Coach Andy Reid told Palmer Wednesday was the first time Mahomes was really able to grip the ball and drive it downfield since suffering his injury Sunday at New England. The reigning MVP may not be at his best when the Chiefs host Denver in Week 15, but Mahomes at 70 or 80 percent is still better than most.
NFL Betting Trends
The over has cashed in four out of the Broncos’ last five games overall but the under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games.
The over is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last seven home games but the under is a perfect 5-0 in their last five divisional matchups.
The over has been profitable in this series, going 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings between Denver and Kansas City. That said, Mahomes still doesn’t look 100% from the leg injury he suffered against this same Broncos team earlier this season and now he’s dealing with a hand injury. Andy Reid admitted to altering his play-calling in the second half of the Chiefs’ win over the Patriots last Sunday to account for Mahomes’ injury, dialing up more shallow crossers and leaning on the running game than allowing his talent signal-caller to throw deep. If Reid is forced to go with a similar game plan this weekend versus an underrated Denver defense, then it could limit Kansas City’s ability to light up the scoreboard.
NFL Week 15 Prediction: Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 45.5