Falcons vs. Packers Total Prediction
A pair of struggling NFC teams will meet at Lambeau Field on Sunday when the Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons at 1:00 p.m. ET. Is the betting total set too high for this matchup?
111 Atlanta Falcons at 112 Green Bay Packers
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 9, 2018
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Packers are 5-point favorites to beat the Falcons. The total, meanwhile, sits at 50.5 points. As of this writing, 55% of the public betting tickets are on the Falcons to cover the point spread.
Matt Ryan completed 16-of-26 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 26-16, Week 13 loss to the Ravens. Ryan also lost a fumble that was housed for a game-sealing, 12-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. The Ravens blitzed on first down and Ryan was not expecting it. With zero running game and Julio Jones battling a hand injury, the Falcons could not sustain drives against the Ravens' elite defense. It was Ryan's worst showing since his miserable Week 1 in Philadelphia. He will have an excellent chance at bouncing back against the folding Packers in Week 14.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers completed 31-of-50 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' Week 13 loss to Arizona. He rushed three times for 20 yards and averaged an anemic 4.7 yards per attempt. Rodgers took only one sack, but he faced consistent pressure from Arizona's underrated pass rush and got nothing going in the deep passing game. Despite Rodgers dropping back to pass 51 times, the Packers didn't record a single 20-yard reception. In a stumbling offense, Rodgers has been among fantasy football's biggest 2018 disappointments. Even in a Week 14 home game versus Atlanta, Rodgers must be downgraded to a boom-bust QB1 throwing to day-three rookie receivers in an archaic offense with come-and-go pass protection.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 12-2 in the Falcons’ last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The over is 6-0 in the Packers’ last six games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous contest.
The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams but I love the under in Sunday’s game. Neither of these teams can protect their respective quarterbacks right now, which limits the scoring potential. This total has been set appropriately if these offenses were both firing on all cylinders but they’re not. The under is 4-0 in the Falcons’ last four games, is 7-2 in their last nine road games and is 5-1 in the Packers’ last six games overall.
NFL Week 14 Prediction: Falcons/Packers under 50.5