Bucs vs. Falcons Prediction
NFC South rivals will meet in Atlanta on Sunday where the Falcons will host Tom Brady and the Bucs at 1:00 p.m. ET. Is 10.5 too big a number to lay with the defending champs against an opponent Brady has owned over his career?
455 Tampa Bay Bucs (-10.5) at 456 Atlanta Falcons (+10.5); o/u 50.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 5, 2021
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Tampa Bay Bucs DFS Spin
Tom Brady completed 25-of-34 passes for 226 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in Tampa Bay's 38-31 Week 12 win over the Colts. The Bucs leveraged five takeaways (four occurring in the second half) and Leonard Fournette (24/131/4) to put the Colts away on the road, turning Indianapolis' 10-point lead at at the half into a 28-24 lead late in the third quarter due to Shaq Barrett's sack-fumble, Antonio Winfield's timely INT, and Nyheim Hines' whiffed punt. Tom Brady leaned on Rob Gronkowski (7/123) over the middle and Fournette underneath to peck away at DC Matt Eberflus' zone scheme, seeing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans underwhelm for a combined 40 yards on 10 targets from the slot and boundary. Brady even handed it off to Fournette, who scampered in for the game-winning 28-yard touchdown, with the game on the line with only :20 remaining. Brady and the Bucs have another terrific matchup for fantasy in place for Week 13 against the Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons DFS Spin
Matt Ryan completed 19-of-29 passes for 190 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the Falcons’ 21-14, Week 12 win over the Jaguars. With Cordarrelle Patterson tearing the Jags apart and the Jacksonville offense failing to put many points on the board, not much was required of Ryan in this game. Still, it was another middling performance from the 36-year-old veteran. He was held under eight yards per pass attempt for the ninth time this year. That happened 10 times in 2020 and just six times in the prior year. With Julio Jones in Tennessee and Calvin Ridley away from the team, defenses only have to stop Kyle Pitts to limit Ryan and the Atlanta passing attack. The Jags took that approach this week and were successful, holding Pitts to just two catches. Ryan was also intercepted on one of his six throws to Pitts. With little chance of stringing together multiple explosive plays, Ryan can only be counted on for QB2 numbers in his Week 12 matchup with the Bucs.
NFL Week 13 Betting Prediction
Instead of laying double digit points with the Bucs, the better bet is with the over, which is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams and is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta. The over is also 29-13 in the Bucs’ last 42 road games, 17-5 in their last 22 divisional games and is 12-3 in their last 15 games following an ATS win. On the other side, the over is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last five divisional games and is 10-4 in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
NFL WEEK 13 PREDICTION: BUCS/FALCONS OVER 50.5