Chargers vs. Jaguars Prediction
Are the Jacksonville Jaguars a smart bet to cover the point spread as a smaller home favorite Sunday afternoon when they host the Los Angeles Chargers at 1:00 p.m. ET?
Who Oddsmakers Like: Jacksonville. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Jaguars are 4.5-point home favorites to beat the Chargers, who opened as a 3.5-point road underdog earlier in the week. As for the total, the number hit the board at 41.5 but has dropped slightly to 41.
Who the Public Likes: Jacksonville. As of Sunday morning, just over 50% of tickets are backing the Jaguars and laying the points.
Who the Trends Like: The over. In the last nine meetings between these two teams, the combined score has gone over the total seven times with one push. The over is also 3-1- in the last five meetings between these two teams in Jacksonville.
Who We Like: Los Angeles. I'm sorry, I'm just not there yet. I'm not willing to anoint the Jaguars one of the top four teams in the AFC, capable of handling any opponent while rolling through their schedule. They've made it look easy thus far, but there's something about this line and matchup today that gives me pause.
Maybe it's the fact that the Jags have not won three straight games with Blake Bortles under center. In his previous attempts to win three consecutive games, he's 0-2 straight up and both games came when Jacksonville was favored. Bortles is also 6-17 straight up and 8-15 against the spread when facing opponents coming off a straight up loss, including 0-6 straight up and ATS at home versus non-divisional foes.
For some reason, the Chargers have also had great success against AFC South opponents. They're 26-7 straight up against this division all-time and are 28-4-1 against the spread over that same stretch.
If you're all in on the Jaguars, then laying less than a touchdown at home against an opponent that figures to finish with between 6-8 wins is nothing. But I wouldn't be shocked to see the Chargers win outright today. The NFL has been goofy this year.
NFL WEEK 10 PREDICTIONS: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4.5