Bills vs. Browns Week 10 Prediction
While the Bills have jumped out to a 6-2 record, the Browns look like they’re on the verge of self-destruction. That said, will Sunday be a circle-the-wagons moment for the Browns, who are laying a field goal as a home favorite?
253 Buffalo Bills (+3) at 254 Cleveland Browns (-3); O/U 40.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 10
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Bills are receiving 68% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Josh Allen completed 16-of-26 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns in the Bills' 31-21, Week 7 win over the Dolphins. He rushed four times for 32 yards and a two-point conversion as a runner. The Bills came out extremely sloppy from their bye week and went into the half trailing 17-9 as they were booed off the field by the home crowd. Buffalo kept shooting itself in the foot with multiple first-half penalties and settling for field goals. Allen eventually started playing better, completing his first eight passes of the second half and hooked up with John Brown (20 yards) and Cole Beasley (3) for his touchdowns. The Bills ran just 51 offensive plays on the day as the Dolphins clocked them in time of possession, which included a 10-minute drive to open the third quarter. Allen will be a QB1 in a dream home matchup with the Eagles in Week 8.
Cleveland Browns Fantasy Spin
Coach Freddie Kitchens hinted Nick Chubb's touches could take a hit with the addition of Kareem Hunt to the backfield. When asked if Hunt's activation off the suspended list could affect Chubb's opportunities, Kitchens responded, "Nick is about one thing, and one thing only, and that's winning. I don't think either one of those two are selfish at all." Chubb has been the lone consistent week to week force in the Cleveland offense. We still like him as an RB1 moving forward, but the arrival of Hunt throws a wrench into the situation. Previous No. 2 back Dontrell Hillard had been in on roughly 40% of the snaps over the last two weeks while averaging six touches per game.
NFL Betting Trends
The Bills are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games and are 7-3 against the number in their last 10 games overall.
The Browns are just 5-21-1 against the spread in their last 27 games when facing an opponent with a winning record. They’re also just 9-23 at the betting window in their last 32 home games.
This is one of those games where you say to yourself, “Why the hell did I take this team?” But I’m going to fall into the trap anyway because I hate myself and love punishment. The Browns should run all over the Bills’ suspect run defense on Sunday. Of course, that would mean Freddie Kitchens feeding the ball to Chubb and not worrying about how many targets Baker Mayfield can force to Odell Beckham Jr., but it is the right game plan. The Eagles ran roughshod over the Bills two weeks ago in Buffalo and despite barely having anything resembling a football team, Washington hung around way too long versus Sean McDermott’s team, too. The Browns look like they’re ready to collapse but I’m going to bank on one circle-the-wagons moment for Baker and Co. I’m sure I’ll regret it.
NFL Week 10 Prediction: CLEVELAND BROWNS -3