Patriots vs. Steelers Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Week 7 Predictions 10/23/16

With Ben Roethlisberger out for the Steelers, are the Patriots a safe bet to cover today when they visit Pittsburgh at 4:25PM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Steelers are 7.5-point home underdogs while the over/under currently sits at 48 points. While the side has bounced back and forth between 7 and 7.5, the total opened at 45.5 but has skyrocketed up to 48 throughout the week.

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Tom Brady has thrown 24 touchdowns to just three interceptions in 10 career games against the Steelers and has 17 scores and zero interceptions in his last five starts versus Pittsburgh. The Patriots are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall and are 7-1-1 at the betting window in their last nine games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

There has been some conflicted reports on when Roethlisberger will return from his knee injury. There was one report indicating that he'll miss 4-6 weeks, but Steelers president Art Rooney said earlier this week that Big Ben could return in 2-3 weeks. Landry Jones will start today versus the Patriots, with Zach Mettenberger backing him up.

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OUR PREDICTION: Since 2007 when Mike Tomlin took over as head coach, the Steelers are 24-16-3 against the spread when an underdog. Only the Patriots, ironically, have a better cover percentage as an underdog over that time frame. (New England is 13-6-2 ATS during that span.) As a home underdog under Tomlin, the Steelers are 7-1-2 against the spread, which is an 87.5-percent coverage percentage. Losing Big Ben obviously hurts, but Pittsburgh still has Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, two players that every team would love to be able to lean on if they lost their starting quarterback. The Steelers were also embarrassed last Sunday in Miami, so look for them to play inspired football today against the best measuring stick in the NFL.



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