Falcons vs. Patriots Prediction
Tonight is a rematch of last season's Super Bowl between the Falcons and Patriots. Will New England beat Atlanta again?
Who Oddsmakers Like: New England. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are 3-point home favorites versus the Falcons, who opened as 3.5-point road underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 53.5 but has been bet all the way up to 56.5 at the majority of online sports books.
Who the Public Likes: As of this writing, the public is split on this matchup. I mean, literally split. The Falcons are receiving 50% of tickets and so are the Patriots. It's somewhat surprising the public isn't laying such a low number on the Patriots, considering that the Pats are massive public team. Clearly the fact that Atlanta blew yet another big halftime lead a week ago hasn't deterred some public bettors.
Who the Trends Like: New England. The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams but the Falcons are winless at 0-5 against the number in their last five games versus the Patriots. The over has also been profitable in this series, cashing in five of the last seven meetings, including in last season's Super Bowl.
Who We Like: New England. I just don't trust Atlanta. The Falcons can play so well in the first half, only to go into a shell offensively after halftime and either hang on for dear life or blow a sizable lead. We saw it in the Super Bowl and we saw it a week ago when they forfeited a 17-0 halftime lead in a shocking 20-17 loss to the Dolphins (+14). It's not just Atlanta's defense, although that side of the ball takes the majority of the blame for the Falcons' second half struggles. Matt Ryan has become a turnover machine this season and he failed to lead the Falcons to any second-half points. When he did get the offense moving late against Miami, he threw a back-breaking pick. Yes, New England's defense has struggled this season. But I'll back Tom Brady at home, especially with the Pats laying such a small number.
NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3