Chiefs vs. Bills Total Prediction
The total for Monday night’s Chiefs-Bills matchup is sitting at a whopping 56 points after opening at 55 at most sports books. Even given the offensive firepower on both sides, is that too many points to lay from a betting standpoint?
277 Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at 278 Buffalo Bills (+5.5); o/u 56
5:00 p.m. ET, Monday, October 19, 2020
Venue: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Kansas City Chiefs Game Notes
Patrick Mahomes completed just 22-of-43 passes for 340 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in the Chiefs' 40-32, Week 5 loss to the Raiders. He added six carries for 21 yards and another touchdown as a runner, opening up the scoring with a short touchdown scamper in the first quarter. Mahomes' two touchdown throws went to Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. Another 60-plus yards score to Tyreek Hill was called back on a Chiefs penalty. Mahomes was cruising in the first half, but Kansas City had fewer than 25 yards of second-half offense deep into the fourth quarter with the Raiders harassing Mahomes and making him leave the pocket on most of his throws. He had to contort his body to make a number of throws. The fantasy numbers look great, but Mahomes didn't play all that well, completing just over 51% of his passes. He could have been picked off a couple times as well. The 4-1 Chiefs will head to Buffalo in Week 6, a game that is scheduled to kick off early Monday night.
Buffalo Bills Game Notes
Josh Allen completed 26-of-41 passes for 263 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in the Bills' Week 5 loss to the Titans. It was, by far, the worst game for Allen and the entire Bills offense. Allen had two 2018-level interceptions and missed a few throws that he was making in the first four weeks of the season. As always, Allen did make multiple plays that only a couple of quarterbacks could make, including a rifle to the back of the end zone to T.J. Yeldon. For fantasy purposes, today's game wasn't enough to move him outside of top-five rankings, especially with John Brown expected to return soon and the Chiefs on schedule next. That game should have one of the highest Vegas over/unders of the week. Allen will be an upside QB1.
Chiefs vs. Bills Week 6 Total Prediction
The under is 39-19 in the last 58 games when the Bills are an underdog, is 5-2 in their last seven games when they’re listed as a home dog and is 5-1 in their last six games coming off a loss. The under is also a perfect 5-0 in the Chiefs’ last five road games, is 4-1 in their last five games as a road favorite and is 7-2 in their last nine games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous contest. In the last 13 meetings between these two teams, the under also cashed in nine of those games.
CHIEFS/BILLS NFL WEEK 6 OVER/UNDER PREDICTION: UNDER 56