Texans vs. Chiefs Week 6 Prediction
The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season while the Texans absolutely dismantled the Falcons last Sunday. Laying 4.5 points at home on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET, are the Chiefs a good rebound play or will is the value with the Texans?
257 Houston Texans (+4.5) at 285 Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5); O/U 55
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 13
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 58% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Deshaun Watson completed 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Texans' 53-32, Week 5 win over the Falcons. Watson added another 47 yards on the ground. Miraculously, Watson wasn't sacked all game. He finished with a perfect 158.3 QB rating. The Texans' franchise QB routinely put the ball exactly where it needed to go, which was typically into the waiting arms of Will Fuller (14-217-3). The Falcons simply didn't have an answer for the Texan's passing game, as Houston didn't need the services of their punter after the first drive of the game. Continue to treat Watson as a top-three QB ahead of next week's matchup against the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Patrick Mahomes (ankle) is practicing Wednesday. After tweaking it in the Sunday night loss to the Colts last week, Mahomes said he's fine. He should bounce back in a big way this week at home against the Texans with Tyreek Hill (collarbone) possibly rejoining the lineup.
NFL Betting Trends
The Texans are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight road games and are 37-3-1 against the number in their last 11 conference games.
The Chiefs are 5-2 against the number in their last seven games versus AFC opponents and are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games played in the month of October.
I’m sure plenty of bettors will look at the way the Texans roughed up the Falcons as a 4-point home favorite last week and grab the points in this matchup, especially with Mahomes hobbled and the Chiefs coming off their first loss. That said, that was a free win against an Atlanta defense that has been exposed. (If Dan Quinn makes it to the end of the year still coaching the Falcons, it would be a massive upset.) I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans came in a little overconfident and struggled offensively after essentially participating in a 7-on-7 drill a week ago. The Chiefs struggled offensively in Detroit despite scoring 34 points and definitely had issues with the Colts’ man coverage a week ago at Arrowhead. Still, Andy Reid is one of the best play-callers in the NFL and he’ll find a way to beat the man coverages that the Chiefs are seeing more and more of.
NFL Week 6 Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5