Packers vs. Lions Prediction
Can Aaron Rodgers continue his dominance of the Detroit Lions when the two NFC North rivals meet up today at 1PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Sunday, October 7, 2018
1PM ET – Ford Field
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Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, the Lions have moved to a slight favorite, as they are getting odds of -1 point against the Packers. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 51 points. The public betting for this game currently has 62 percent going on Green Bay on the road. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NFL Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Lions off to slow start
The Lions are coming off a narrow 26-24 loss at Dallas last week in which they lost on a last-second field goal. Detroit is just 1-3 on the year with a 3-1 mark against the spread. The Lions are also 3-1 with the over this season. They have managed to cover the spread in their last three games, all as an underdog. Their lone failed cover was as a favorite against the Jets in the opener.
Part of the reason for the Lions struggles is their run defense. Detroit is giving up 157.8 yards per game on the ground thus far. As a whole, Detroit is giving up 28.5 points and 355.8 yards per game. The unit has been without top pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah since Week 1. He has missed the last three games with a shoulder injury and will sit out today as well. On offense, the Lions have been showing improvement in recent weeks. They are now averaging 28.5 points and 402 yards per game. Their run game is creeping up toward 100 yards per game as rookie Kerryon Johnson has emerged in recent outings. He has 216 yards and a touchdown on 38 carries this year. Matthew Stafford is leading the offense with 1,202 yards and eight touchdowns to go with five interceptions. Golden Tate is the leading receiver with 28 catches for 389 yards and three scores. Up front, the Lions will be without veteran guard T.J. Lang this Sunday due to a concussion.
Packers limping in
The Packers are coming off a nice 22-0 win over the Buffalo Bills last week at home to move to 2-1-1 on the season. They are just 2-2 against the spread this season while hitting the over in three of the four games.
Green Bay has been improved on defense this year, allowing just 20.8 points and 349.5 yards per game this season. The unit has 13 sacks and has forced six turnovers. Offensively, the Packers are putting up 23 points and 398.3 yards per game. Aaron Rodgers is having another strong year, throwing for 1,130 yards and seven touchdowns with just one INT. However, he has been sacked 12 times. Today, Rodgers will be without Randall Cobb, one of his top receivers. Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams are both questionable to play as well with injuries. Green Bay could use more from its run game, which is averaging just 102 yards per game. Jamaal Williams is the leading rusher with 162 yards on 47 carries.
NFL Betting Trends
The Lions have covered the spread in five straight conference games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a loss.
The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win over more than 14 points. They are also 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.
While the Lions won both meetings last year, that was against a Rodgers-less Packers team. Rodgers is going to be in Detroit on Sunday, and that may be enough for Green Bay. He is 13-3 against the Lions with 34 touchdowns and just six interceptions. The Detroit defense isn’t stellar by any stretch. While their pass defense has been good, I still think Rodgers can make them look bad. I am surprised to see the Lions as a favorite here, when history tells you Green Bay owns them.
NFL Prediction: Green Bay Packers +1