Chiefs vs. Jaguars Week 1 Prediction

Chiefs vs. Jaguars, 9/8/19 NFL Week 1 Betting Predictions & Odds

The high-powered Chiefs are only a small road favorite on Sunday in Jacksonville, where they’ll visit the Jaguars at 1:00 p.m. ET. Is this a trap game for bettors?

Game Snapshot

463 Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at 464 Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5); O/U 50.5

1:00 p.m. ET, September 8, 2019

TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Public Betting

According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 71% of the betting tickets as a 3.5-point favorite over the Jaguars.

Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports LeSean McCoy is expected to see 15-20 snaps in his Chiefs debut Sunday against Jacksonville. While McCoy won't be getting the biggest piece of Kansas City's backfield pie, the Chiefs liked what they saw from him at practice this week. Per Rapsheet, Shady has looked "incredibly fast" in his brief time with Kansas City and is obviously familiar with the offense after playing under Andy Reid in Philadelphia. McCoy underwhelmed with Buffalo last year but could benefit from a change of scenery. His presence is a downgrade for both Damien Williams and electric rookie Darwin Thompson.

Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Spin

NFL Network's James Palmer reports Jaguars LT Cam Robinson (knee) could miss "a week to maybe a few weeks." With backup LT Cedric Ogbuehi additionally out with a hamstring injury, Jacksonville will turn to third-stringer Will Richardson, who has yet to play a single regular season snap. It's not ideal, but Nick Foles and Leonard Fournette should still have a field day in what's shaping up as a pure trap spot for the Chiefs in Jacksonville. At this point, Robinson should also be considered doubtful for Week 2.

Kansas City Trends

The Chiefs are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games played in the month of September and are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.

Jacksonville Betting Trends

The Jaguars are 2-5-2 against the number in their last nine games versus AFC opponents.

Prediction

This line is fishy. Surely plenty of bettors looked at how low the spread was for this game and pounced on the Chiefs. With the line dropping a full point from 4.5 to 3.5 off the opening number, the spread looks even more suspicious. The Jags defense won’t be as good as it was in 2017 but it shouldn’t be as bad (at times) as it was in 2018. With Nick Foles under center, the Jags should be able to move the ball more consistently offensively than with Blake Bortles at the helm, so I’m going to roll the dice that Jacksonville hangs today versus the high power Chiefs.

NFL Week 1 Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

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