Super Bowl 51 Line Might Not Move
How much will the point spread for Super Bowl 51 move before the Patriots and Falcons kick off at 6:30PM ET on Sunday?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Patriots are currently 3-point favorites over Julio Jones and the Falcons for Super Bowl Sunday. New England also opened as a 3-point favorite so the line has stayed steady for nearly two full weeks. As for the total, the number hit the board at 58.5 and that's where it currently sits.
The question now becomes, how much will the point spread move before kickoff? Our NFL Public Betting page shows that over 65% of public bettors are currently backing the Patriots at -3. Thus, if the line moves anywhere, it should jump to 3.5 but there's a possibility that oddsmakers are concerned about sharp bettors nabbing line once it goes up.
Something else to consider: On Saturday afternoon ESPN.com reported that one of the Vegas sports books (CG Technology) took a $1 million bet on the Falcons +3 on Friday. The million-dollar bettor, an account-based customer at CG Technology according to ESPN.com, risked $1.1 million to win $1 million on the Falcons covering the field goal. That said, the same article noted that MGM's sportsbook took a $485,000 bet on the Patriots Friday.
What does it all mean? Chances are we won't see the line move off the 3-point figure. If sports books are receiving significant two-way action on the game, then there's no reason to move the line off the current number. Thus, if you like the Patriots, you'll most likely have to bet the number down yourself if you want New England at -2.5. (Or hey, just pay the extra juice and take the Pats to win straight up.)