Super Bowl 54 Spread Prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as a 1-point favorite versus the San Francisco 49ers for Super Bowl 54. With the line now sitting at 1.5 at most sports books, which team will cover the number and become Super Bowl champion?
101 San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at 102 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5); o/u 54
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 2, 2020
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Travis Kelce caught 3-of-4 targets for 30 yards in Kansas City's AFC Championship win over the Titans. A one-on-one matchup with Kevin Byard proved to be a much tougher task than dealing with Jahleel Addae and Justin Reid. Kelce sprinkled in a couple of his catches in the first half but was ultimately shutdown for the final two quarters once the Titans shifted to more zone and double-coverage to contain him and Tyreek Hill (5/67/2) in the slot and along the perimeter. Kelce still made his impact felt with two massive seal-blocks that sprung both Damien Williams and Hill open for their scores that began from behind the line of scrimmage. One would imagine Kelce is looked to often in Super Bowl 54 in Miami.
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Spin
George Kittle posted a 19-yard reception on his lone target in the 49ers' NFC Championship Game victory over the Packers. Reduced to run blocking for the 49ers' dominant ground game this postseason, Kittle will head into Super Bowl LIV with just four catches for 35 yards across two playoff appearances. He should be needed for more against a Chiefs defense that coughed up the 11th most tight end fantasy points this season, though perhaps the 49ers' running game is simply too locked in. The Chiefs are far more vulnerable on the ground than through the air.
NFL Betting Trends
The Chiefs are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games overall and have covered the spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The 49ers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog and are 5-1 against the number in their last six games coming off a win.
If Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense has the ball last, there’s a chance that the Chiefs come away with a victory and Kansas City cashes in on what some are viewing as a team of destiny.
However, the biggest mismatch in this game is Mahomes versus Jimmy Garoppolo, yet the Niners have the better team top to bottom. San Francisco’s defense is better, the Niners have a bunch of weapons offensively, just as the Chiefs do, and they own the better running game. So while I acknowledge Mahomes could get me in the end, I’m taking the better team.
Kittle is going to be a beast tonight for the Niners. They might be able to run the ball effectively, but just like the Titans, eventually they’re going to have to put the ball in the air and I trust Kyle Shanahan (who is seemingly one step ahead of most opponents) to dial up some big plays between Garoppolo and Kittle. And no, just because Garoppolo only attempted eight passes in the NFC Championship Game doesn’t mean that he’s a liability It just means that Raheem Mostert was able to carve Green Bay’s run defense up for 220 yards and Shanahan kept feeding the hot hand, which he should have seeing as how the Niners won easily.
I also don’t think it’ll be as easy for the Chiefs to rally against the 49ers as they were able to when the erased a 24-0 deficit against the Texans in the Divisional round and a 17-7 deficit against the Titans in the AFC title game. The Niners aren’t as limited offensively as the Titans and have a better overall coaching staff than Houston. Thus, if Kansas City trails early, that could be the difference tonight, albeit no lead is generally safe when Mahomes is involved.
This 49ers team largely flew under the radar all season, mostly because they’re only a year removed from selecting in the top 5 of last year’s NFL draft and even by Week 17 they weren’t guaranteed a home game in the NFC playoffs. Despite thoroughly dominating the Vikings and Packers, they’re once again the overlooked team because of the Garoppolo versus Mahomes “matchup” and the fact that Andy Reid is the sentimental favorite.
I like the Niners to surprise again.
SUPER BOWL 54 PREDICTION: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +110