Why there's value in the Pro Bowl Under
The over/under for tonight's NFL Pro Bowl between Team Rice and Team Irvin has dropped significantly ahead of the 7:00PM ET kickoff.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the total for tonight's Pro Bowl is currently 72 points while Team Irvin is a 1.5-point favorite over Team Rice. That's a significant drop for the over/under, which opened at 77.5 points late Saturday night. The side opened as a pick'em, so that has seen significant movement as well.
Since the NFL changed its Pro Bowl format in 2014, the games have been lower-scoring than in previous years when it was just the AFC versus the NFC. The AFC and NFC combined to score 97 points in 2013, which was the last year of the old format. When the league switched to a draft format for the 2014 Pro Bowl, the final score was 22-21, which was a full 46.5 points under the posted total of 89.5.
Last year, the scoring was up again when Team Irvin beat Team Carter 32-28, but the combined score still fell under the total of 69.
There were also a number of rule changes to help speed up the game, which also affects the over/under. For example, the play clock changed from 40 seconds to 35 seconds and kickoffs were also eliminated as each team now begins from their own 25-yard line.
The game clock also starts after an incomplete pass, except inside the final two minutes of the first half and the final five minutes of the second half. Defenses now are allowed to play Cover 2 and press coverage, whereas before they could only play man-to-man.
While it's tempting to always take the over when it comes to betting the Pro Bowl, these changes have aided under bettors in recent years.