NFC Title First Half Total Prediction
The total for Sunday’s matchup between the Packers and 49ers in San Francisco sits at 46.5 but the first-half total is 22.5. Is the over in play for bettors when it comes to the first half of the NFC Championship Game?
First-Half Spread & Total
As previously mentioned, the 49ers are laying 7.5 points to the Packers in tonight’s NFC Championship Game, although our NFL Betting Odds page shows that some online sportsbooks are moving San Francisco to -8. As for the first-half number, the 49ers are currently laying 4.5 at Caesars Casino and Sportsbook, with the juice shaded at -115 to San Francisco. As for the total, the number sits at 46.5 for the game and 23 for the first half.
Where is the money going?
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the 49ers are receiving 53% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks. The betting tickets were as high as 61% a couple of days ago, it’ll be interesting to see where the line moves from here until the 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff.
First-Half Total Prediction
Full transparency: I like the over 46.5 for the game today. I don’t think this matchup will be as low-scoring as it was the first time these teams met back in November (a 31-8 rout of the Packers for the Niners), but I also see enough value in the first-half under to make that recommendation in this article.
The biggest reason for that is because in Green Bay road games this season, the under is 6-1. That’s a strong trend and it gives you an idea of how the Packers start games when playing on the road.
For example, the Packers traveled to the west coast twice in the month of November. They played the Chargers in Carson City on November 3 and were promptly shut out 9-0 in the first half, easily cashing the first-half under of 24.5. Two weeks later, they traveled to Santa Clara to play the Niners and were shut out again in the first half as San Francisco built a 23-0 lead heading into the half.
It's not just the west coast or the time change that seems to impact this Green Bay team either. In Week 17, the Packers made the short trip to Detroit and were held to a single field goal in the first half by a bad Lions defense. They traveled to Minneapolis earlier that week to play the Vikings on Monday night and the turnover-plagued Pack were limited to only 9 first-half points. Thus, in Green Bay’s last four road games, the under is 4-1 in the first half. The lone exception came on December 1 when the Packers traveled to East Rutherford and hung 17 points on a horrendous Giants defense, while also surrendering 10 points defensively.
All told, the Packers averaged 12.5 points per game in the first half this season but that number plummets to 8.4 when they’re on the road. Conversely, the Niners are averaging 15.0 points per first half and 15.8 points per first half at home. While San Francisco’s averages are concerning when considering the first-half under tonight, it’s important to note that the 49ers are allowing just 8.4 points in the first half of all home games this season, while the Packers are allowing 11.1 points per first half on the road.
I envision this game being tight at half. Perhaps a 10-7 or 10-10 half before both offenses open up in the second half and potentially cashes the over for the game. Either way, that 6-1 figure on the under if first half of Green Bay road games this year is too good to ignore.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST HALF TOTAL PREDICTION: PACKERS/49ERS UNDER 23