Vikings vs. 49ers Total Prediction
The total for Saturday’s NFL Divisional round playoff matchup between the Vikings and 49ers opened at 45.5 but has been bet down to 44.5. Should bettors follow the line movement and take the under or is there better value in the over?
301 Minnesota Vikings (+7) at 302 San Francisco 49ers (-7); o/u 44.5
4:35 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 11, 2020
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the 49ers are receiving bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb from online sportsbooks.
Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Spin
Adam Thielen (ankle) is questionable for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the 49ers. Thielen spent Thursday's practice as a spectator after receiving stitches for a cut suffered at Wednesday's session. That's an ominous sign ahead of Saturday's 4:35 PM ET kickoff, though most reports suggest Thielen will gut it out with the Vikings' season on the line. He faces a difficult road matchup against one of the league's top secondaries (league-low 169.2 passing yards allowed per game).
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Spin
Jimmy Garoppolo completed 18-of-22 passes for 285 yards in the 49ers' Week 17 win over Seattle. Garoppolo aired it out in this one, connecting on deep shots to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Kyle Juszczyk. Despite not throwing a touchdown, he put the 49ers in good field position all night and averaged 13.0 YPA. Garoppolo has been streaky this season, but he finishes with a career best 3,978 yards and a 27:13 TD/INT ratio. With home field advantage locked up, the 49ers will go as far as Garoppolo takes them in the playoffs.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 6-1 in the Vikings’ last seven playoff games as an underdog.
The over is 5-0 in the 49ers’ last five games played on Saturday and is 6-1-1 in their last eight games when they’re favored.
The under was an excellent bet Wildcard Weekend, cashing in all four games, including in the Minnesota-New Orleans matchup (49.5). The under is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams, so play for a low-scoring game, right? Actually, I like the over. The 49ers have not played as well defensively over their last four games as they did for most of the season. They allowed 21 points to the Seahawks in Week 17 and were an ich shy of allowing six more. They also surrendered 31 points to the Rams, 29 points to the Falcons and 46 points to the Saints in their three previous games before their Week 17 matchup with the Seahawks. On the other side, the Vikings showed how well they can play defensively last week in New Orleans, but I don’t expect Minnesota’s pass rush to be as ferocious on Saturday as it was last weekend. The over is also 5-1 in the Vikings’ last six road games and 4-1 in their last five games coming off a win.
NFL Divisional Round Playoff Prediction: Vikings/49ers OVER 44.5