Patriots vs. Dolphins Free Pick
AFC East rivals will meet in the regular season finale for both teams today when the Dolphins host the Patriots at 1:00PM ET.
After opening as a 10.5-point favorite, New England is now -10 today against Miami according to oddsmakers from online sports book Mybookie.ag. The total has also dropped, going from 47.5 down to 47.
The Patriots are currently 12-3 on the year and 7-6-2 against the spread, while the Dolphins enter play with a 5-10 record and are 4-11 at the betting window. With Miami already eliminated from postseason contention, 71% of public bettors are currently backing New England -10.
Bill Belichick isn't going to concede anything and thus, he'll play starters who are healthy today. That said, it's hard to lay 10 points on a team that is as banged up as the Patriots are, and the Dolphins aren't trustworthy no matter how many points they're getting. Thus, the total is where the value lies.
New England will likely be without Julian Edelman (foot) and left tackle Sebastian Vollmer (knee), and could be without Danny Amendola (knee) and key defender Dont'a Hightower (knee) as well. Due to those injuries, the Patriots aren't the same explosive team that they were earlier this season. They should still reach the 20s, but the Dolphins have combined to score just 26 points in their last two games.
It's hard to envision Miami contributing enough to push the score over the total.
NFL WEEK 17 FREE PICK: PATRIOTS/DOLPHINS OVER 47