Will Indiana cruise versus a lifeless Penn State squad in Big Ten play? Can Mississippi State continue to cover in SEC play when it hosts Georgia? And which side is the smart money on when it comes to the BYU-Texas Tech clash in Lubbock, TX? Keep reading for our College Football Week 11 Best Bets for the early action on Saturday.
College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Indiana (-14.5)
Game information: Indiana (ranked #2) at Penn State, Saturday, November 8, 2025 — kickoff listed on Bovada for 5:00 PM ET (Beaver Stadium). Line: Indiana -15.0 on Bovada.
Betting trends: Indiana enters undefeated and has consistently been beating teams by large margins; Penn State has been trending down after coaching upheaval and defensive lapses, and public money has been heavy on the Hoosiers’ machine-like offense in recent weeks. (Market moved to Indiana -15 on Bovada.)
Injury reports: As of the Bovada and recent previews, Indiana has no announced game-changing injuries to its starting core; Penn State’s defensive depth chart has been thinner after recent roster and staff turnover (monitor late scratches).
Weather report (Beaver Stadium / University Park): Cool, mostly intermittent clouds with temperatures in the mid-50s at kick — nothing that should materially hamper either offense, but a crisp day favors the faster, more disciplined Indiana attack.
Prediction: I’m laying the points with the Hoosiers. There’s not much life to this Nittany Lions team, which has nothing to play for on Saturday. The season was lost long ago for PSU and Indiana needs to stay sharp for its eventual date with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Final score: Indiana 38, Penn State 16.
College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Mississippi State (+9)
Game information: Mississippi State (home) vs. Georgia (#5), Saturday, November 8, 2025 — kickoff listed 5:00 PM ET at Davis Wade Stadium. Bovada market shows Georgia as a 9-point favorite (Georgia -9).
Betting trends: Georgia is the public favorite and rightfully so most weeks, but this spot is appealing for Mississippi State bettors: Bulldogs at home have been competitive, and Georgia’s recent travel and short-rest travel patterns plus modest offensive inconsistency in SEC road environments have shown vulnerability. Sharp books have also shown resistance to moving this line far beyond a touchdown+; +9 gives Mississippi State cover upside if they hang around late.
Injury reports: Check last-minute scratches, but public reports prior to kickoff show no seismic injuries to Mississippi State’s core; Georgia is relatively healthy but relies on grinding drives — anything that slows tempo helps the Dogs. (Always confirm final injury updates before lock.)
Weather report (Starkville): Pleasant, mostly sunny conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s — ideal for a home team that will lean on tempo and the crowd. Weather won’t be a negative factor for Mississippi State.
Prediction: Take Mississippi State +9. Georgia’s talent gap is real, but 9 points on the road in the SEC against a motivated home crowd is a line that over-prices a neutral-market advantage. Mississippi State’s best path to cover: win time of possession, shorten the game, and force a few low-variance drives that keep Georgia off the field. If the Bulldogs can avoid a turnover avalanche and convert a few third downs, +9 becomes a strong number to hold through a close fourth quarter. Expect Georgia to win but not by more than two possessions. Pick: Mississippi State +9 — Final score: Georgia 27, Mississippi State 20.
College Football Week 11 Best Bets: BYU (+10.5)
Game information: BYU at Texas Tech, Saturday, November 8, 2025 — kickoff listed 5:00 PM ET (Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock). Bovada shows BYU +10.5
Betting trends: BYU is a sizable season-over-season overperformer on offense and is battle-tested; Texas Tech’s margin of victory record this season has been eye-catching, but market consensus suggests the home crowd and defensive front are Texas Tech’s edge. The current spread (>10) creates value for BYU backers: they’re 1) disciplined, 2) good at limiting mistakes, and 3) able to keep games within a single-possession range when needed. Public and model sources are split, but several respected outlets have BYU to cover +10.5.
Injury reports: No glaring BYU injuries reported in early lines; Texas Tech’s health appears OK but monitor for any last-minute offensive-line or key-receiver notes that would swing this X-factors battle.
Weather report (Lubbock): Dry, sunny, and comfortable — temps in the upper 60s to low 70s during the afternoon — conditions favor an up-tempo game, which helps BYU’s chance to stay in rhythm and keep drives alive. Wind is not expected to be a factor.
Prediction: Back BYU +10.5. Texas Tech is talented and explosive at home, but BYU’s discipline, efficient quarterback play, and ability to stay mistake-light make the Cougars a textbook plus-10.5 underdog. Expect Texas Tech to score, but BYU should be able to convert enough sustained drives and avoid turnovers to keep the final margin within double-digits. This spread pays off if BYU can dictate enough clock and make a couple of field goals in the second half while the Red Raiders’ offense stalls briefly. Pick: BYU +10.5 — Final score: Texas Tech 31, BYU 24.
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