The Texas vs Mississippi State SEC West showdown in Starkville is a fascinating clash of styles with playoff implications. Texas enters as a touchdown favorite, but Mississippi State is hungry for its first conference win. Below is a detailed breakdown of the matchup, including injury updates, team stats, and a confident betting recommendation.
Game Details
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Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025
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Kickoff: 3:15 p.m. CT / 4:15 p.m. ET
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Location: Davis Wade Stadium — Starkville, MS
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TV: SEC Network
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Weather: Forecasted at 76°F with 38% humidity and cloudy skies
Texas vs Mississippi State Betting Odds
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Spread: Texas −6.5
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Total: 44.5
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Moneyline: Texas −260, Mississippi State +215 ESPN.com
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Team Profiles
Texas Longhorns (5–2, 2–1 SEC)
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Offense: Averaging 26.7 points per game; quarterback Arch Manning has thrown for 1,449 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. The rushing game has been less effective, averaging 149.4 yards per game.
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Defense: Allowing 279.1 yards per game, ranking 12th nationally. They have conceded 83.3 rushing yards per game and 195.9 passing yards per game.
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Recent Form: Coming off a 16–13 overtime win against Kentucky, where they gained just 179 total yards and struggled with fumble recoveries.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (4–3, 0–3 SEC)
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Offense: Averaging 31.9 points per game; quarterback Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,525 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Running back Fluff Bothwell leads the team with 465 rushing yards.
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Defense: Allowing 20.3 points per game; they have given up 164 rushing yards per game and 187.3 passing yards per game.
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Recent Form: On a three-game losing streak, including a narrow 23–21 loss to Florida.
Key Matchup Factors
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Turnover Margin: Texas has struggled with fumble recoveries, ranking 90th nationally with a 33.3% recovery rate. Mississippi State’s offense is prone to turnovers, which could be a decisive factor.
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Quarterback Play: Arch Manning’s performance will be crucial. Despite recent struggles, he remains the starter, and his ability to execute the offense effectively will be key.
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Home Field Advantage: Mississippi State will be looking to capitalize on the home crowd to snap their conference losing streak.
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Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction
Pick: Texas −6.5
Rationale:
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Defensive Strength: Texas boasts a top-15 defense nationally, which should be able to contain Mississippi State’s offense, especially if they can capitalize on turnover opportunities.
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Offensive Upside: Despite recent struggles, Texas has the talent to break out offensively. With Arch Manning under center and a solid receiving corps, they have the potential to put up points.
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Mississippi State’s Struggles: The Bulldogs are winless in conference play and have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball. Their inability to close out games could be a significant disadvantage.
Final Score Prediction: Texas 28, Mississippi State 17
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