This South Florida vs Miami prediction previews a marquee in-state rivalry where Miami is the heavy favorite but South Florida arrives hot after statement early-season wins. The matchup is a classic contrast: Miami’s top-tier talent and depth vs. USF’s rising confidence and disruptive playmaking.
Event Information
- Matchup: South Florida Bulls at Miami (FL) Hurricanes
- Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL
- TV: The CW
Betting Odds & Market Info
- Your quoted line: South Florida +17.5 — market consensus sits around Miami -17.5.
- Total (O/U): market samples cluster at 56–56.5 (many books listing 56.5).
Get the live line at Bovada and monitor public ticket/money splits at the College Football Public Betting Chart.
Quick Matchup Notes (what matters to bettors)
- USF strengths: South Florida is riding momentum from upset wins and features a physical, dual-threat QB who can extend possessions and generate chunk plays. Their improved discipline and situational execution give them a higher floor than many expect.
- Miami strengths: Miami brings elite talent, depth, and home-field advantages. Their offense scores in bunches and defense can create turnovers that flip field position.
- Key factor: 17.5 is a large spread—if USF can avoid early turnovers and force Miami into sustained drives, the Bulls have a path to keep this inside the number. Conversely, if Miami jumps ahead early and controls the line of scrimmage, this becomes a rout.
Prediction & Best Bet
Predicted Score: Miami 34, South Florida 17
Best Bet: South Florida +17.5 (small–medium unit)
Why I like it (expanded reasoning): Miami is the superior team and should win, but 17.5 points is a big number against a USF team that’s proven it can hang with top opponents. USF’s discipline, improved defense, and ability to convert in short fields make them a live cover candidate — this spread buys nearly three full possessions, which is meaningful in rivalry games where emotion, special teams, and a few surprise plays often keep the margin smaller than the box score suggests. If you want the clean win, take Miami straight up; if you prefer value and insurance against rivalry variance, take USF +17.5.