Last Updated on December 18, 2025 3:44 pm by Anthony Rome
The inaugural Xbox Bowl — replacing the Bahamas Bowl — brings together Missouri State (7-5) and Arkansas State (6-6) for a compelling Conference USA vs. Sun Belt postseason matchup in Frisco, Texas. What’s the best bet in this Missouri State vs. Arkansas State matchup on Thursday night?
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Game Information
- 📅 Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
- 🕗 Kickoff: ~9:00 p.m. ET
- 🏟️ Location: Ford Center at The Star — Frisco, TX (first-ever Xbox Bowl)
- 📺 TV: ESPN2 (stream on ESPN app and Fubo)
The inaugural Xbox Bowl — replacing the Bahamas Bowl — brings together two offensive-minded programs in Missouri State (7-5) and Arkansas State (6-6) for a compelling Conference USA vs. Sun Belt postseason matchup in Frisco, Texas.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | ML |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | +1.5 | 54.5 | +100 |
| Arkansas State | -1.5 | 54.5 | -110 |
Who Is The Public Betting
| Team | % of Bets | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | 49% | +2.5 | +1.5 |
| Arkansas State | 51% | -2.5 | -1.5 |
Numbers update frequently — check the latest splits on our college football public betting chart before placing any bets.
🏈 Team Overviews
Missouri State Bears (7-5, Conference USA)
Head Coach: Nick Petrino (interim) — stepping in after Ryan Beard’s departure for Coastal Carolina.
Missouri State transitions from FCS to FBS in 2025 with impressive results, earning its first postseason game and a chance at a historic bowl win. Offensively, the Bears have thrived through the air attack, ranking among the FBS’s better passing offenses.
Offensive Strengths:
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QB Jacob Clark — senior signal-caller with 2,895 passing yards and 24 TDs this season.
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Shomari Lawrence — lead rusher, nearly 1,000 rushing yards with 7 TDs.
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Jmariyae Robinson — top receiver with 40 receptions, 536 yards, 6 TDs.
Defensive Notes:
Missouri State’s defense was serviceable but inconsistent, allowing ~28.3 PPG, with challenges creating pressure and stopping the run at times.
Season Profile:
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Offense: ~391.8 yds/game (65th FBS)
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Scoring: ~25.4 PPG
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Pass Offense: 273.9 yds/game (22nd FBS)
Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6, Sun Belt)
Head Coach: Butch Jones
Arkansas State rallied after a tough start to reach bowl eligibility for the third consecutive season. The Red Wolves boast a balanced offense with a solid passing game but defensive issues — especially against the run — kept them around .500.
Offensive Strengths:
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QB Jaylen Raynor — threw for over 3,000 yards this season with 16 TDs.
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Corey Rucker — Arkansas State’s leading receiver with 866 yards.
Defensive Notes:
The Red Wolves were vulnerable on both sides of the ball, allowing over 416 yards per game, with struggles particularly defending the run and stopping sustained success plays.
Season Profile:
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Offense: ~384.7 yds/game (72nd FBS)
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Scoring: ~24.4 PPG
📊 Key Matchups & Storylines
🔥 Air Attacks vs. Leaky Defenses
This game likely becomes a shootout as both teams lean on their passing strengths. Missouri State’s high-volume passing faces Arkansas State’s fairly robust but mistake-prone defensive backfield, while Raynor’s aerial game challenges the Bears’ secondary.
🛡 Front Seven Pressure & Sacks
Arkansas State’s defense generated strong pressure this season, which could disrupt Missouri State’s rhythm and force turnovers — a key for extra possession advantage.
🎯 Turnovers & Big Plays
Missouri State’s success in bowl eligibility came via efficient offensive execution — including late comebacks — but Arkansas State’s season was marked by turnover issues that swing momentum rapidly.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Picks
With both offenses capable of moving the ball and defenses showing vulnerabilities, this game shapes up as a high-tempo, pass-friendly contest. Missouri State’s consistent Air Raid-style attack and balance with Shomari Lawrence give them a slight edge against an Arkansas State unit that has shown defensive inconsistency down the stretch.
Prediction: 🏆 Missouri State 24, Arkansas State 21 (Take under 55)
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