Michigan St. vs. Northwestern Prediction
After being upset at home last weekend, will Michigan State be able to bounce back when it hits the road to face Northwestern on Saturday at Noon ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
333 Michigan State vs. 334 Northwestern
Saturday, September 21, 2019
Noon ET – Ryan Field
Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new NCAAF Odds & Betting Page.
Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Michigan State is favored on the road, as the Spartans are getting odds of -9.5 points against the Wildcats. The over/under total is listed at 39 points. The public betting currently has 62 percent going on Northwestern as the home underdog. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Spartans choke at home
Michigan State let one get away from them on Saturday when the Spartans suffered a 10-7 loss to Arizona State at home. MSU is now 2-1 on the season, 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 with the under.
The Spartans have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 11.3 points and 216 yards per game, but their offense has let the defense down. MSU averages 28.7 points and 429.7 yards per game this year, but most of that came against Western Michigan. MSU is beat up on the offensive line, which has hurt the run game. Elijah Collins is leading the ground attack with 281 yards and a touchdown, but he has been the only productive back. Brian Lewerke has thrown for 797 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 60 yards as well. Darrell Stewart Jr. has been his primary receiver with 25 catches for 362 yards and a touchdown. Kenny Willekes is leading the MSU defense with 19 tackles, four sacks and two fumble recoveries.
Wildcats bounce back
Northwestern opened the season with a tough 17-7 loss at Stanford, but finally was able to bounce back from the loss this past weekend with a 30-14 win over UNLV at home. The Wildcats are 1-1 overall, 0-2 against the spread and 2-0 with the under.
Like Michigan State, Northwestern has a great defense. The Wildcats are giving up just 15.5 points and 347.5 yards per game. The offense is averaging 18.5 points and 325.5 yards per game. The team lost TJ Green for the season due to an injury in the opener and Hunter Johnson has taken over. He has thrown for 220 yards with one TD and three interceptions while rushing for 68 yards and a score. Drake Anderson is the team’s leading rusher with just 146 yards and a touchdown.
College Football Betting Trends
The Spartans are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games on grass and 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall.
The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six against a winning team and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games in the Big Ten.
After the offense looked shaky against Tulsa in the season opener, Mark Dantonio called out his unit and it responded against Western Michigan. However, it went back to garbage against ASU. I don’t see it bounce back in its first road game against this Northwestern defense. Even though the Wildcats don’t have the most talent, Pat Fitzgerald gets his players to play with pride and fight. Northwestern has been an issue for Michigan State in the past, winning and covering in four of the last five meetings. I am not sure I can trust Michigan State to score 10 points this weekend, let alone win by that much. I think the Wildcats will add to their struggles and make this game a fight to the end, if not win it outright.
College Football Week 4 Prediction: Northwestern +9.5