Championship weekend brings stakes, storylines and some of the juiciest betting edges of the season — the kind of spots sharp bettors circle on their calendar. If you’re shopping lines and hunting for value, these College Football Conference Championship Best Bets highlight four plays where matchup quirks, personnel advantages and game script expectations create edges worth attacking on Dec. 6.
Best Bet: Texas Tech -12.5 vs. BYU
Texas Tech enters this one with a high-volume, explosive passing attack that tends to force opponent game plans into uncomfortable, fast-paced shootouts. BYU’s defense has shown vulnerability to explosive plays and big-yardage drives against spread offenses; when Tech’s tempo clicks, BYU will be forced to play faster and more aggressively than it prefers, opening up chunk plays through the air and on the ground. Texas Tech’s ability to generate quick striking drives and short fields will make a double-digit spread eminently coverable, especially if BYU tries to keep pace rather than control tempo.
Matchup data on the game page shows the tendencies that favor Tech’s offense and BYU’s trouble defending high-octane passing attacks, which supports the expectation Tech can hit and exceed a 12.5-point margin if they avoid sloppy turnovers.
Best Bet: Alabama +2.5 vs. Georgia
This line suggests a coin-flip bunched around a home-field/composure edge for Georgia, but Alabama’s defense has been stout in late-season championship settings and the Tide have playmakers capable of creating splash plays that swing momentum and scoring. Georgia’s offense can grind, but Alabama’s pass rush and secondary mismatches create an environment where a lower-scoring, turnover-driven game becomes likelier — exactly the script that turns a tight spread into a friendly number for the underdog. If Alabama controls time of possession on key drives and pins special teams field position, a cover at +2.5 is realistic.
Best Bet: Virginia -4 vs. Duke
Virginia’s balanced offensive approach and downhill rushing attack set a game tempo that tends to neutralize Duke’s passing rhythm. When Virginia controls the line of scrimmage and sustains longer, clock-consuming drives, it forces Duke to play catch-up — a script where Virginia’s disciplined defense can force predictable playcalling and limit explosive plays. A 4-point spread is vulnerable in this matchup because Virginia’s defensive success against intermediate throws and its red-zone efficiency should translate into enough scoring margin to cover late in the game.
The matchup notes and situational splits on the game page underline Virginia’s advantages in controlling pace and converting short-yardage situations, both of which matter heavily against a Duke team that struggles when forced off schedule.
Best Bet: Indiana/Ohio State over 47.5
Ohio State and Indiana both profile as offenses that can produce chunk plays and quick scoring drives; when these teams trade possessions and avoid long, clock-draining drives, totals climb fast. Ohio State’s explosiveness and Indiana’s ability to generate yards in chunks — especially if special teams or field position becomes a factor — projects to a fairly high-scoring affair. The matchup page shows both teams posting above-average offensive efficiency in neutral or fast-paced scripts, which supports the belief that a 47.5 total is reachable, particularly if neither defense consistently gets three-and-outs.
If either side opens the game with early scoring drives, momentum and playcalling often loosen and the remainder of the game follows a higher-scoring trajectory — the exact environment where an Over 47.5 becomes the smarter target.
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