Week 13 brings high stakes, postseason positioning and late-slate games that bettors love — and the totals market is shouting for attention. In this College Football Week 13 Picks & Predictions: Late Slate piece I’m targeting three totals plays that combine matchup context, recent form and market pricing to find value. I’ll lay out why each play makes sense and the scenarios that make them hit — no hedging, just clear reasoning and a confident lean.
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College Football Week 13 Best Bets: Late Slate
Best Bet #1: USC vs. Oregon, 3:30 p.m. ET
Both teams possess the personnel and tempo to make quick, high-yardage drives and explosive plays. Oregon’s offense at Autzen aims to push the pace and score early; USC’s offense can respond in kind with chunk plays. The market settling at 59.5 already prices in a fast game — but film and season numbers show both defenses susceptible to big-play variance, and special teams/turnover volatility could add extra possessions. I like the OVER because a couple defensive breakdowns + tempo advantages will push this past 60.
Play: OVER 59.5
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Best Bet #2: Arkansas vs. Texas, 3:30 p.m. ET
Texas’ offense is designed to generate large yardage totals, and Arkansas—while flawed—has enough offensive juice (especially in the run game and occasional downfield strikes) to keep pace in spurts. The Razorbacks have been competitive in several losses this year, and Texas’ pressure to secure a resume-building win suggests they’ll keep the foot on the gas. The market’s 57.5 total reflects expectations for scoring, but I expect both teams to reach scoring situations frequently enough that 58+ becomes likely.
Play: OVER 57.5.
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Best Bet #3: Illinois vs. Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is the contrarian piece relative to the first two. Camp Randall in late November, combined with Wisconsin’s historically low-scoring home trends and a defense that can force shorter drives, makes the under attractive at 41.5. Illinois is the better offense, but they’ve had low-output games and Wisconsin has shown the ability to grind down opponents and limit big plays — plus potential weather and clock-control rushing by Wisconsin could keep possessions long and scoring moderate.
PLAY: UNDER 41.5
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